Well, I am not one to take pot shots at my colleagues, but I will say, if you readmy Soap Box Speech on Seasonal Forecasting, you will see a sentence that reads: "ALL SEASONAL FORECASTS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT OR EVEN A BIT OF HUMOR. This is probably the most worthwhile thing to take home when it comes to seasonal forecasting.
Please believe me when I say; No matter how convincing a forecaster seems, or how great they say their track record is, if there really was someone producing accurate seasonal forecasts, it would be no secret and that person would be one of the wealthiest individuals out there. As I mention in my soapbox speech, there are some tools that can prove useful at times, but nothing that can provide reliable seasonal forecasts on a regular basis for all areas of the World, US or even all areas of the Midwest.
Joe is very energetic, one could say even evangelical in his presentation. This can be very convincing to the untrained eye, but is really just a very good show. Joe's forecast for last winter bombed about as bad as any. So believe what you want, and not to pick on Joe, but there is no such thing as a reliable seasonal weather forecast, no matter what anyone tries to tell you.
-John
