Winter's Prediction a bust for NE Illinois?

xsledder

xsledder

Active member
In my opinion, it appears most of the predictions for the winter season have been off for the Chicagoland area. The Weather Channel indicated that we would have below average temps for the winter. And in October I would have believed it. But, so far this winter, we are having above average temps, more days over average than under the average. As for snowfall, more than average was predicted. I don't think we broke a foot of snow for the season. We may have actually broke a foot of rainfall for the season so far. And we are 1/3 of the way through the snowmobile season in this area, Dec 15 through Mar 15 in most areas in this region.

This last storm was more rain than snow. I have about a 1/2" to an inch of snow in the yard and we where supposed to initially get 8+ inches that got whittled down to 3" - 5". This winter is turning out be be a lot like last winter. So, does that mean the end of January thru February will be freezing cold temps and lots of snow for this area. I don't know. But so far it looks like most of the predictions have been wrong.

So I wonder, do these people who forecast and make predictions on the weather and climate review their prediction after the season and analyze what went wrong with their predictions. Do they use models and if so, go back and review where the models got it wrong. Are these models even calibrated to know events. I am sure these are complicated models with lots of variables to calibrate with / to, but it should be done. If they use models that are not adjusted or calibrated, then it is GIGO at its best. (Before you criticize me to harshly for the last statement, I perform hydrology and hydraulics modelling as part of my job and yes, we calibrate our models to known rainfall and flooding events. Otherwise, we get GIGO and our designs don't mean ___. So, I know what I am asking about.) After all, they are scientist yes, and should have a curiosity of knowing where they go it wrong, no?

Or, do they make the actual events fit to their predictions and pretend they were correct after all. Kinda like fitting Nostradamus' passages to current day events. (I don't believe Nostradamus actually predicted the helicopter and Hitler.) Just curious.
 
C

confusion_900

Member
xsledder said:
In my opinion, it appears most of the predictions for the winter season have been off for the Chicagoland area. The Weather Channel indicated that we would have below average temps for the winter. And in October I would have believed it. But, so far this winter, we are having above average temps, more days over average than under the average. As for snowfall, more than average was predicted. I don't think we broke a foot of snow for the season. We may have actually broke a foot of rainfall for the season so far. And we are 1/3 of the way through the snowmobile season in this area, Dec 15 through Mar 15 in most areas in this region.

This last storm was more rain than snow. I have about a 1/2" to an inch of snow in the yard and we where supposed to initially get 8+ inches that got whittled down to 3" - 5". This winter is turning out be be a lot like last winter. So, does that mean the end of January thru February will be freezing cold temps and lots of snow for this area. I don't know. But so far it looks like most of the predictions have been wrong.

So I wonder, do these people who forecast and make predictions on the weather and climate review their prediction after the season and analyze what went wrong with their predictions. Do they use models and if so, go back and review where the models got it wrong. Are these models even calibrated to know events. I am sure these are complicated models with lots of variables to calibrate with / to, but it should be done. If they use models that are not adjusted or calibrated, then it is GIGO at its best. (Before you criticize me to harshly for the last statement, I perform hydrology and hydraulics modelling as part of my job and yes, we calibrate our models to known rainfall and flooding events. Otherwise, we get GIGO and our designs don't mean ___. So, I know what I am asking about.) After all, they are scientist yes, and should have a curiosity of knowing where they go it wrong, no?

Or, do they make the actual events fit to their predictions and pretend they were correct after all. Kinda like fitting Nostradamus' passages to current day events. (I don't believe Nostradamus actually predicted the helicopter and Hitler.) Just curious.
Click to expand...

If you remember , last years big snow events took place late in the year (March) I know probably most people burnt up there vacation time but that seems to be the pattern lately
 
H

Highflyer

Active member
xsledder said:
In my opinion, it appears most of the predictions for the winter season have been off for the Chicagoland area. The Weather Channel indicated that we would have below average temps for the winter. And in October I would have believed it. But, so far this winter, we are having above average temps, more days over average than under the average. As for snowfall, more than average was predicted. I don't think we broke a foot of snow for the season. We may have actually broke a foot of rainfall for the season so far. And we are 1/3 of the way through the snowmobile season in this area, Dec 15 through Mar 15 in most areas in this region.

This last storm was more rain than snow. I have about a 1/2" to an inch of snow in the yard and we where supposed to initially get 8+ inches that got whittled down to 3" - 5". This winter is turning out be be a lot like last winter. So, does that mean the end of January thru February will be freezing cold temps and lots of snow for this area. I don't know. But so far it looks like most of the predictions have been wrong.

So I wonder, do these people who forecast and make predictions on the weather and climate review their prediction after the season and analyze what went wrong with their predictions. Do they use models and if so, go back and review where the models got it wrong. Are these models even calibrated to know events. I am sure these are complicated models with lots of variables to calibrate with / to, but it should be done. If they use models that are not adjusted or calibrated, then it is GIGO at its best. (Before you criticize me to harshly for the last statement, I perform hydrology and hydraulics modelling as part of my job and yes, we calibrate our models to known rainfall and flooding events. Otherwise, we get GIGO and our designs don't mean ___. So, I know what I am asking about.) After all, they are scientist yes, and should have a curiosity of knowing where they go it wrong, no?

Or, do they make the actual events fit to their predictions and pretend they were correct after all. Kinda like fitting Nostradamus' passages to current day events. (I don't believe Nostradamus actually predicted the helicopter and Hitler.) Just curious.
Click to expand...

Season to date snowfall at O'hare is 12.9". This figure does not include yesterday's event. As John had mentioned I believe in his Winter outlook, Above average snowfall doesn't mean you will get it when you want to play on snowmobiles. I can turn it around on you.....we had records amount of snow in October and November this year. December was down. Still a lot of winter left to hit an average or above average snowfall reading for the chicagoland area.
 
xsledder

xsledder

Active member
Highflyer said:
...Above average snowfall doesn't mean you will get it when you want to play on snowmobiles....
Click to expand...

Why not? (Turning it back around on you.) When the snow occurs outside the times you can use the trails, what good is it? (Other than it still looks pretty.) But what I am reading from your response is what what I call the Nostradamus connection, making something fit to a board and highly interpretive prediction that anyone can make work. Yes, we might have had 12.9" inches of snow at O'Hare so far including October and November, about a 1/3rd if what we normally/average get, but all that occurred outside the "winter" months. So what.

This last storm was to be a big storm according to news stations early on. Batten down the hatches, by all the gas you can, get food, and then a dud. I could not believe the people at the stores and gas stations Friday night all for an inch of snow. Not to mention, the waste of tax payers money sitting and idling along side the road waiting for the big one. (Might be more snow elsewhere, but still, it was why over hyped.)

Back to my real point, does anyone go back after-the-fact and calibrate these models. Over hyping these storm cost people a lot of money. Or, is that what the government wants?
 
S

snobuilder

Well-known member
xsledder said:
Why not? (Turning it back around on you.) When the snow occurs outside the times you can use the trails, what good is it? (Other than it still looks pretty.) But what I am reading from your response is what what I call the Nostradamus connection, making something fit to a board and highly interpretive prediction that anyone can make work. Yes, we might have had 12.9" inches of snow at O'Hare so far including October and November, about a 1/3rd if what we normally/average get, but all that occurred outside the "winter" months. So what.

This last storm was to be a big storm according to news stations early on. Batten down the hatches, by all the gas you can, get food, and then a dud. I could not believe the people at the stores and gas stations Friday night all for an inch of snow. Not to mention, the waste of tax payers money sitting and idling along side the road waiting for the big one. (Might be more snow elsewhere, but still, it was why over hyped.)

Back to my real point, does anyone go back after-the-fact and calibrate these models. Over hyping these storm cost people a lot of money. Or, is that what the government wants?
Click to expand...

LIKE.

They leave the hype machine go on as long as it gets results.....>attention to their stations and websites =$$$$$ (NO, i'm not ripping THIS site I mean TWC, ACCU WTHR etc).... and no there isn't a preferred place to go anymore.....they all are hypetards.....analyze schmanalyze....they really don't need to.... they is Lucy with a football and we is good 'ol Charlie Brown....LOL
 
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snobuilder

Well-known member
BUT on another note....While taking our first north woods ride over the 4,5,6 I was reminded by a famous bar owner that the trails didn't open up there until 1/15 last season!
They were real happy with being on their 3rd weekend already this season.
So mow your IL lawn and rake yur leaves and then head NORTH...LOL
 
Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Why not? (Turning it back around on you.) When the snow occurs outside the times you can use the trails, what good is it?

Not much at all, but when I sit down to do a forecast or a seasonal outlook, I have no idea what YOUR preferable time for snow is, or anyone else. So I do it for a season. Which by the way was for average snowfall in all of the Midwest.

For a short term forecast, the only tools to use are the models and my experience/intuition with them. All forecasters know the models are not perfect and never will be. They perform BILLIONS of computations to produce just a 3 day forecast. In essence, what they are trying to do is predict where a leaf in a river will travel down the river, given the current circumstances of the river. Sounds simple enough, but with the atmosphere, it is not just 2D, it is 3D. Plus unlike most rivers in a short period of time, the atmosphere is constantly changing. Not just the direction (in 3 dimensions), but things like temp, density and the phase of any moisture particles in it. When I stop to think about what the models do, it boggles my mind!

With all that said, they still get it wrong, but rarely do they get it totally wrong. Take this instance for example. They really were not that far off in the nuts and bolts of things (temp, amount of precip falling). However, because the differences in air temp and or available moisture can make in the amount of snow are amplified, the resultant snow an area gets vs. how much was predicted makes snow forecasting the most noticeable error and also the hardest element in weather forecasting. Bet you hardly bat an eye when .65" of rain is predicted and you only get .27". That is what happened with this system late yesterday and last night, only in the form of snow, not rain (1-3" of snow vs 4-8").

As far as calibration of the models goes...Work is done. I would not call it calibration. The reason is, as mentioned, they perform billions of computations, so a true calibration would be extremely lengthily in time and probably not even be that effective. They do case studies, especially in events like this and then make modifications to elements of the models in an attempt to improve their performance.

As far as the hype, the models are not doing that. It's the humans, especially main stream media. Why, because boneheads keep eating what the mainstream media are feeding them!

-John

PS. Please know that I only said all I said to try and add further understanding to the processes involved, not to prove anyone wrong or argue a point!
 
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T

toddspolaris

Member
But I can’t believe with today’s technology, forecasts can be so far off, they were calling for 12 plus inches for lots of areas in lower mi and to only get 3 , I guess it’s like selling a car, start high and to only come down
 
K

kevinj

Member
I think the amount of precip (liquid equivalent) was just about right on. The difficulty comes in understanding the thermal profiles. Had the profiles been what they thought was indicated, I totally believe the western burbs of Milwaukee would have got about 8 inches. As it was, we got about 0.2" of ice and then 0.5" of sleet, then a couple inches of snow. That ice/rain/sleet is more dense and does not make up the depth as good as snow. These comments down't even address the 0.5"+ of rain on Friday night. This being snow could have easily made the 8-12" weekend event a success.
 
2

2TrakR

Member
Administrator said:
Bet you hardly bat an eye when .65" of rain is predicted and you only get .27".
Click to expand...

Thanks for the insight, it's always informative and appreciated.

I'm in the boat that 4/10 can make a big difference and do take notice. More than 1/2" of water means we can't get into most of our fields for 2-3 days; 3/10s means maybe by end of day or tomorrow we can get in to work/spray/plant/etc.
 
O

old abe

Well-known member
confusion_900 said:
If you remember , last years big snow events took place late in the year (March) I know probably most people burnt up there vacation time but that seems to be the pattern lately
Click to expand...

Tracker tried his best to tell us last year the seasons were running a month to 6 weeks behind time! I seem to remember it had something to do with the Earths tilt being off kilter?

- - - Updated - - -

grub said:
Weather forecasters predict the weather. Mother Nature laughs.
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Like Mother Nature is REAL, eh!
 
S

snobuilder

Well-known member
old abe said:
Tracker tried his best to tell us last year the seasons were running a month to 6 weeks behind time! I seem to remember it had something to do with the Earths tilt being off kilter?

- - - Updated - - -
Anyone who follows the snow as close as a sledder can see the later winter month snowfall phenomenon.... the earth tilt is not proved just like bigfoot but stories are fun to listen to.


Like Mother Nature is REAL, eh!
Click to expand...

Real as santa claus , the easter bunny, tooth fairy, bigfoot and snobuilder the nice guy....lol
 
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old abe

Well-known member
snobuilder said:
Real as santa claus , the easter bunny, tooth fairy, bigfoot and snobuilder the nice guy....lol
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Leave the Easter Bunny out of this, he's my good friend! My granddaughter won't think much of you messing with either Santa, or the Tooth Fairy! As for Bigfoot, and snobuilder, you on your own! And remember this, I am the one who said you had mellowed, eh! Yeah!
 
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Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
2TrakR said:
Thanks for the insight, it's always informative and appreciated.

I'm in the boat that 4/10 can make a big difference and do take notice. More than 1/2" of water means we can't get into most of our fields for 2-3 days; 3/10s means maybe by end of day or tomorrow we can get in to work/spray/plant/etc.
Click to expand...


Ha ha! I almost put "unless you are a farmer or grounds keeper"... before my reference to the rain difference!
 
G

Go Fast or Go Home

Active member
snobuilder said:
LIKE
they leave the hype machine go on as long as it gets results.....>attention to their stations and websites =$$$$$ (NO, i'm not ripping THIS site I mean TWC, ACCU WTHR etc).... and no there isn't a preferred place to go anymore.....they all are hypetards.....analyze schmanalyze....they really don't need to.... they is Lucy with a football and we is good 'ol Charlie Brown....LOL
Click to expand...


Believe it or not---I actually agree with snobuilder on this one. ( Thanks Charlie Brown )

Weather forecasters can't seem to get yesterday's weather correct.

Don~
 
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