Yamaha Rumor - 75% Production decrease in 2018

[Cirrus_Driver]

Yup.
18 Vipers near Green Bay are 9.2, No set up etc.
20 months ago 14 Vipers were 7995.
Also, 17 off road racer UTV's are under 15.

Bear

From a 35 yr. Cost Analyst...cut production all you want....no manufacturing absorption, and no profit on discounted sales = failing business model.
They didn't want them at $11.4K, or $10.9K, or now at $9.2K. They don't handle, and they aren't faster than a 600 2S. No market for that sled.

 

[brad460]

Settle down.....Yamaha still builds sleds in Japan (Apex, Vector, Venture, etc)..obviously anything not in a Cat chassis. 2018 is the last year for the Apex and others.

This reduction is the Japan manufactured sleds..not sure where 75% came from but there will be a significant reduction.

As Kip mentioned above the cost to “get out of the snowmobile business” is more costly than staying in..however with Cat building all the sleds it will make it cheaper to exit.

As far as the Yama/Cat the production numbers will continue per the market and they are not exiting the snowmobile business. Since the partnership with Cat, Yamaha is finally making some decent profit in the sled biz...

 

[Modman440]

I’ve never been a huge fan of Yamaha they are great trail sleds rediculously heavy not good off trail and not popular in the mountain world either. Seems like out of the big 4 they keep lowering prices and in my opionion you see less and less new ones and more older yamis. We went to Gaylord and I seen more older phasers and a couple old mountain Max than new models. Over the years I’ve owned brand new 0.1 miles blah blah blah and any more I like buying used although the new pro RMKs are really looking good might join the new sled game again lol. Just my .02 I think a production cut wouldn’t hurt but maybe a new design that actually competes with the lower base model 600s on weight and power heck get back into snocross again a lot of the younger crowd pays attention to snocross they come out with something like cat did I think in 2010 the sno pro 500s looked like a legit factory race sled but were a price most could actually afford and have fun with. I don’t think the sport is hurting in the younger catigory were all Indiana boys mid 20s got kids and families and we all ride but most younger guys want cheaper sleds that are reliable and have basic comforts like the new Indy’s and mxz600s all cheaper fun sleds cat doo and Polaris offer a cheaper (fun) sled yami has heavy trail sleds that the younger crowd doesn’t seem pleased with. Guess I’ll shut up lol have a great night JD Family!!!!! Yoop bound in 2 weeks. Gonna rip the wife’s Indy!!!

MOD

 

[snobuilder]

I’ve never been a huge fan of Yamaha they are great trail sleds rediculously heavy not good off trail and not popular in the mountain world either. Seems like out of the big 4 they keep lowering prices and in my opionion you see less and less new ones and more older yamis. We went to Gaylord and I seen more older phasers and a couple old mountain Max than new models. Over the years I’ve owned brand new 0.1 miles blah blah blah and any more I like buying used although the new pro RMKs are really looking good might join the new sled game again lol. Just my .02 I think a production cut wouldn’t hurt but maybe a new design that actually competes with the lower base model 600s on weight and power heck get back into snocross again a lot of the younger crowd pays attention to snocross they come out with something like cat did I think in 2010 the sno pro 500s looked like a legit factory race sled but were a price most could actually afford and have fun with. I don’t think the sport is hurting in the younger catigory were all Indiana boys mid 20s got kids and families and we all ride but most younger guys want cheaper sleds that are reliable and have basic comforts like the new Indy’s and mxz600s all cheaper fun sleds cat doo and Polaris offer a cheaper (fun) sled yami has heavy trail sleds that the younger crowd doesn’t seem pleased with. Guess I’ll shut up lol have a great night JD Family!!!!! Yoop bound in 2 weeks. Gonna rip the wife’s Indy!!!

MOD

...Yea....who wouldn't buy an Indy with a set a W.E all around?

Yamaha might actually have an even bigger roll in Catextron world with there stellar engine designs.

Doubt we will ever see a new pure Yamaha sled although a surprise all Yamaha 2 stroke along the lines of a 600/800 Indy would sell a million copies.

 

[old abe]

Yamaha will never be a market force until they offer a sled/engine combination, that is designed, and built as one from the very start of the project. Handling, balance, and power wise. This could be done with A/C Textron jointly. But more than likely it would be with Yamaha as a engine provider for A/C. That way A/C with a full sled line up, can develop, market, and manage it's production easier. Shoe horned sleds will not do it. Also without good 2-stroke sleds, Yamaha's market share is slim, and very limited. Just the way it is. 2 strokes sleds are by far, the largest share of the market, and that is not going to change.

 

[kip]

Opinions vary, fact is they aren't going anywhere. They have a two year plan and then they will reaccess after that. They have the least amount of noncurrent inventory out there which I know stands to reason because they produce the least. Everyone has noncurrents out there, it's the nature of the business. Those dealers that have 3 and 4 year old new inventory obviously should not be in the business anyway. They are a great company that cares about their customer base. Yes the sleds are heavy for the thousandth time on this site, good lord LOL!!!! Sorry fella's, Yamaha is gonna be around whether you like it or not and I'm stoked to have the product line which is selling very well for me For what it's worth, I ordered more Yamaha's than Polaris this year, I have less Yamaha's left than Polaris. I have one 2017 left for each product line. I fully expected the Polaris sales to surpass my Yamaha sales but the fact is they haven't in now the 6th year of selling. I ordered 77 Yamaha's and 56 Polaris sleds for 2018. I did 20 2018 Yamaha snowchecks and 3 Polaris snowchecks. I did do 7 Timbersled snowchecks. It's pretty obvious that the heavy stuff is selling well gals and girls YeeeHaw! LOL!

 

[vx700xtc]

Opinions vary, fact is they aren't going anywhere. They have a two year plan and then they will reaccess after that. They have the least amount of noncurrent inventory out there which I know stands to reason because they produce the least. Everyone has noncurrents out there, it's the nature of the business. Those dealers that have 3 and 4 year old new inventory obviously should not be in the business anyway. They are a great company that cares about their customer base. Yes the sleds are heavy for the thousandth time on this site, good lord LOL!!!! Sorry fella's, Yamaha is gonna be around whether you like it or not and I'm stoked to have the product line which is selling very well for me For what it's worth, I ordered more Yamaha's than Polaris this year, I have less Yamaha's left than Polaris. I have one 2017 left for each product line. I fully expected the Polaris sales to surpass my Yamaha sales but the fact is they haven't in now the 6th year of selling. I ordered 77 Yamaha's and 56 Polaris sleds for 2018. I did 20 2018 Yamaha snowchecks and 3 Polaris snowchecks. I did do 7 Timbersled snowchecks. It's pretty obvious that the heavy stuff is selling well gals and girls YeeeHaw! LOL!

kip, this is no place for facts........lol

 

[byr 13]

from a 35 yr. Cost analyst...cut production all you want....no manufacturing absorption, and no profit on discounted sales = failing business model.
They didn't want them at $11.4k, or $10.9k, or now at $9.2k. They don't handle, and they aren't faster than a 600 2s. No market for that sled.

9,200 is where the list price should be , they would sell a lot more

 

[snobuilder]

Winders, cats, doos and Poos are all over down here at a big discount.
This crap year isn't helping.

 

[G]

From a 35 yr. Cost Analyst...cut production all you want....no manufacturing absorption, and no profit on discounted sales = failing business model.
They didn't want them at $11.4K, or $10.9K, or now at $9.2K. They don't handle, and they aren't faster than a 600 2S. No market for that sled.

The Viper was the first kick at the cat. The original appeal was 4 stroke dependability in a Cat chassis. You are correct that the Viper is not the best 600 class sled out there. But it was a necessary step to get to the Sidewinder. The Cat chassis is a very good chassis for the lighter 2 stroke engines that Cat makes. However it was not originally intended to house a heavier 4 stroke mill. The Zuk turbo, the Viper and now the Sidewinder are not and will never be what one would call 'nimble'. However there is still going to be a market for the stock turbo which is stupid quick. The good shock packages mask the weight to some degree but Yami insists on running their stupid Tuner skis which a lot of folks ditch before they even go out on the snow. Bumps are not a problem for the Sidewinder but turning can be an adventure until a person irons things out. There is no doubt in my mind that between Textron, Yamaha and even the brightest minds at AC they could engineer and build a second generation platform specific to the heavier 4 stroke mills. If they wanted to.

 

[tsg]

Kip, great assessment and thanks for sharing your numbers. Quality dealership backed by quality people which makes the product you sell that much more attractive. I do think that certain sled brands / types of sleds are somewhat regionally based, obviously not referring to the mountain segments, but in some areas like where you are people seem to enjoy the luxury cruisers and no nonsense fours. That is great for you, and the numbers reflect that. Like i initially posted and from what others have stated, in the southern and northeastern part of Wisconsin non currents are all over and dealers had there Yamaha sleds pulled. Good choice by Yamaha to tighten network, and there is always too sides to each story so...... As I previously posted, i know 2 of these dealer owners personally, and they just could not sell any Yamaha sleds in any decent quantities, and they had their line for years. Could reflect on dealer and their focus, but their numbers of the other brands they sell, one has 2, the other 3, are strong. So, to me, the dealer is a component, from a quality and location standpoint, and certain brands are stronger in certain areas, Back on topic, good for Yamaha, and good for all if they limit production, and perhaps shrink their line offerings.

 

[snobuilder]

The Viper was the first kick at the cat. The original appeal was 4 stroke dependability in a Cat chassis. You are correct that the Viper is not the best 600 class sled out there. But it was a necessary step to get to the Sidewinder. The Cat chassis is a very good chassis for the lighter 2 stroke engines that Cat makes. However it was not originally intended to house a heavier 4 stroke mill. The Zuk turbo, the Viper and now the Sidewinder are not and will never be what one would call 'nimble'. However there is still going to be a market for the stock turbo which is stupid quick. The good shock packages mask the weight to some degree but Yami insists on running their stupid Tuner skis which a lot of folks ditch before they even go out on the snow. Bumps are not a problem for the Sidewinder but turning can be an adventure until a person irons things out. There is no doubt in my mind that between Textron, Yamaha and even the brightest minds at AC they could engineer and build a second generation platform specific to the heavier 4 stroke mills. If they wanted to.

I also thought the 998 turbo deserved its own chassis but weight over the skis is weight over the skis.....Like it or not Yamaha power steering is the answer no matter if they build a chassis around that engine or not.....that or get a 800 2 stroke if your thing is being quick in the twists and turns.

For a visual aid....pop a side panel off the winder and then an AXYS....LOL...it is a rosey o' donnel vs carrie underwood moment.

 

[kip]

VX700XTC, LOL! TSG, thanks and I didn't mean that they aren't doing their job but the winters certainly don't help. I had a good dealer friend from Indian and he had to give it up because of such poor winters, makes sense. Dealers have to believe in what they're selling, if they don't then it's never going to work and it takes a lot of work to do so. Dealers I think just get worn out as your foot constantly has to be on the gas, it's tough.

 

[Cirrus_Driver]

Love discussions like this because it sheds light on the markets, and informs the customer. Let's face it, the dealer opining here sells 90% of the Yamaha's in 3 states, along with Port, and it stands to reason people know where to get a deal.
No big revelation to say Yam unit sales greater than Pol in this case. The question you'll never know is what kind of profit margin you have at $9.2K vs. $11.4K, and what kind of subsidy Yama-Cat is providing. People saying it's financially more favorable to stay in business vs. discontinue manufacturing are misinformed. There's this thing called break-even, and it involves fixed + variable cost, + volume and sell price. Once your sell price x units sold doesn't exceed your fixed+variable cost, you're in the red. Make no mistake, even Yamaha evaluates all their product lines and what they contribute to the corporate bottom line. It probably still costs them a small fortune to run that snowmo production line, and even Sidewinder volume alone can't absorb ALL that fixed cost. The customer will be the LAST to know when they pull the plug, and they're sitting on a discontinued model.

 

[whitedust]

Love discussions like this because it sheds light on the markets, and informs the customer. Let's face it, the dealer opining here sells 90% of the Yamaha's in 3 states, along with Port, and it stands to reason people know where to get a deal.
No big revelation to say Yam unit sales greater than Pol in this case. The question you'll never know is what kind of profit margin you have at $9.2K vs. $11.4K, and what kind of subsidy Yama-Cat is providing. People saying it's financially more favorable to stay in business vs. discontinue manufacturing are misinformed. There's this thing called break-even, and it involves fixed + variable cost, + volume and sell price. Once your sell price x units sold doesn't exceed your fixed+variable cost, you're in the red. Make no mistake, even Yamaha evaluates all their product lines and what they contribute to the corporate bottom line. It probably still costs them a small fortune to run that snowmo production line, and even Sidewinder volume alone can't absorb ALL that fixed cost. The customer will be the LAST to know when they pull the plug, and they're sitting on a discontinued model.

Just like Polaris did with their PWC line.....customer last to know... Yamaha has found a way to stay in the sled biz no sense in running them down... I like Yamaha sleds pure Japan builds and Yamacats out of TRF. I agree with Grub put EPS and Snow Trackers on the Sidewinder and you have the perfect big dog sled. Why Yamaha withholds EPS in TRF builds is beyond my reasoning?

 

[G]

Next generation Sidewinder as follows: The engine will be laid down horizontally. There will be no front bulkhead. Shock towers will be integrated into the engine itself. The motor will double as a frame. Kind of like some motorcycles. The light stuff like air boxes and intercoolers can sit on top of the motor. Center of gravity will be lowered greatly. To further centralize weight the chaincase will be mounted to the rear of the driveshaft. (Pol actually tried this in the 70's) There will be liberal use of carbon fiber. It will cost $20000. With QS3 shocks ad another 2 grand. Sign me up.

 

[sjb]

A little update from what I have found -

Just like Kip stated, Yamaha is going to stay in the business. They are changing their business model to make it more profitable by no longer making the small production runs. Reduce current inventory and plan for longer production runs, which will reduce the variable costs. Being in manufacturing myself, completely understand where they are coming from. I am hoping this is the case. Don't want to see any of the four go away from this sport.

 

[kip]

No doubt, would be a very sad day if any of them folded up.

 

[Cirrus_Driver]

A little update from what I have found -

Just like Kip stated, Yamaha is going to stay in the business. They are changing their business model to make it more profitable by no longer making the small production runs. Reduce current inventory and plan for longer production runs, which will reduce the variable costs. Being in manufacturing myself, completely understand where they are coming from. I am hoping this is the case. Don't want to see any of the four go away from this sport.

Are you in Cost Accounting? Longer production runs don't reduce variable costs, it amortizes the setup of various machinery and assembly over higher volume, which lowers the incremental cost of manufactured parts.
The nature of variable cost is, it increases or decreases proportionate to volume. We strive for longer production runs in machining, because 4-6 hr. setups on Swiss CNC's lower the manufacturing cost of parts.
We like VOLUME, but if we can't increase volume due to sales market limitations, we like longer runs, to the extent we can handle the increased inventory hold, due to lower turns.
It's all about adequate sales market forecast for the next budget year. In the snowmo biz....good luck with that.
My guess is they are going to run an entire product line at once before switching over tooling, and doing new setups on machines. This means potential delays in shipping some models before others.

 

[old abe]

A/C Tiger Shark, Polaris pwc, Polaris Victory, John Deere snowmobiles, and on, and on. The customer is always that last to find out. Almost always previously denied by Co's. Much easier to axe product lines now days, as it was years prior, such as in tax write offs, and such. Sad, but so. Good time to be buying, bad to be selling. Remember, it's a jungle out there!!! It was easy to see Yami had to do something. Perhaps they should have bought A/C when they were ripe for picking?????????????