your January 20th forecast

dfattack

dfattack

Well-known member
John,

I'm assuming you meant to say "range" here instead of "rains"?

"Temps in this time frame will be warming. Today, all of the Midwest will be below freezing for daytime highs. Tomorrow also sees most of the region to run below freezing for highs. By Wednesday and Thursday, much of the region will see highs top out above freezing, with highs in the 34-36 degree rains in most of the Northwoods. "

at least I'm hoping so...
 
jd

jd

Administrator
Staff member
440_chazz said:
Not too thrilled about the above average temps. Even the 11-16 day has above average temps. What's going on?
Click to expand...

Well, you can likely put most of the blame on a pseudo-El Nino. While the sea surface temps in the El Nino/La Nina region are not technically at an El Nino state, they are very, very close. The corresponding weather we have had since autumn has been very reminiscent of what to expect during an El Nino. At least in much of the US from around eastern TX north to WI and the UP. Warmer than average temps in the Midwest, with above average precip in the Gulf Coast.

The polar jet has been stuck across the extreme northern US or Canada for much of the past 2-3 months. Even the snow storms we have had have not really come courtesy of the polar jet. Rather the southern (sub-tropical jet), tossing moisture north and having just enough cold air to make snow.

I suspect more of the same with some brief interludes of close to average temps for most of the rest of the winter. Spring may actually hold more snow than average, as that is the time of the year the sub-tropical jet dissipates and the polar jet has been known to show up for a few weeks. However, the snow and below average temps would be mainly across the Northwoods mainly, as by that time, true winter weather is departing the southern 1/2 of the Midwest.

-John

PS If anyone is wondering why California has not been getting slammed by storm after storm, it is because the sea surface temps in the eastern Pacific are not much warmer than average and that is the region that supplies the moisture to southern CA (sometimes called the "Pineapple Express".
 
S

slimcake

Active member
Boy that is sure some depressing stuff right there.... I was holding out hope of a repeat of last year. Jan was warm and then the switch flipped and we got hammered until the end of march middle of april. Not going to be the case eh John?
 
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