I have learned over the years as well that you can't trust anything out past 3 days. So, though in the back of my mind I am secretly rooting for the "big storm" coming, I am really just waiting until 2-3 days before and then I will start taking some stock into what they are saying.
Being from Chicago, when they say a storm is coming, and they say it 3 days in a row, there is a good chance something is coming.
Looks like John's prediction is going to happen, about 50% less and titch South (I think he alluded to both of those possibilities)
Bottom line, repeat info without much change 2-3 days prior, usually will happen. Everything else is smoke and mirrors