Chance of a White Xmas in North Central WI?

indy_500

indy_500

Well-known member
SledTL said:
I can't believe that someone would even contemplate putting sleds on a trailer for the next 10-15 days anywhere in the midwest. Its been 40s stretching up the Canadian border and 35 people had to picked up by the DNR this past weekend when an ice sheet broke away on Red Lake. Lucky if there is 7-8" on most lakes even in places where you could soon drive a truck out in past years. A 20 square mile area getting 2-3" aint gonna cut it for riding. Red line here is hwy 8, brown is zero snow.
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Agreed… I think every snowmobiler with half a brain has come to the realization that they will not be riding before the new year. Is what it is… Time to look forward to January and hope for the best!
 
lofsfire

lofsfire

Active member
indy_500 said:
Agreed… I think every snowmobiler with half a brain has come to the realization that they will not be riding before the new year. Is what it is… Time to look forward to January and hope for the best!
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Yeah, and at this point end of January to build a good base unless we get some big dumping, without warm ups...

I have a trip planned for St Germain for Jan 25-28. This is the only trip I have that is not flexible. I have a friend flying up from Texas. I'm just hoping for a good experience for him. That is the weekend before the Radar runs. there have been a few years that they have canceled the races, but normal it is fairly safe to assume you can go somewhere by then... But this start definitely makes you worry...
 
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attakman

Well-known member
BTW.....this is the precip map from Today through Christmas Day, and yes that's above average...but it's ALL RAIN!!!
 

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mezz

mezz

Well-known member
That in itself is a bit deceiving, as you pointed out, the precip is all rain, nothing "near normal" about that especially here in the Keweenaw. I guess, when you look at a "Precipitation Outlook" for the month of December, one would automatically assume the precipitation is actually snow. Obviously not the case this year.
 
snoden

snoden

Active member
Our first trip is Jan 6th - 13th, at this point it would take a miracle to have really good trails based on the current forecast through the New Year. So, we made reservations for the second week of March (9th-16th) as a back up. Now hoping our trip in February (10th - 17th) will give us some great trails.
 
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IOWASLEDDER

Active member
snoden said:
Our first trip is Jan 6th - 13th, at this point it would take a miracle to have really good trails based on the current forecast through the New Year. So, we made reservations for the second week of March (9th-16th) as a back up. Now hoping our trip in February (10th - 17th) will give us some great trails.
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I just literally canceled our trip for these exact same dates. Just didn't want to rack up any unnecessary fees for canceling at the last minute.
 
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euphoric1

Well-known member
Last year we were about 2 weeks away from our trip and strongly deciding whether to cancel or not, conditions were not all that good and the forecast wasn't promising much better but in that two weeks it went from poop to almost stellar conditions. And yes I will admit I dont put much faith in long term forecasts but and I think I speak for more than myself, the one that shows what I want looks more appealing to me than the one that doesn't. Im pulling for the one that shows promise and dont want to hear the one that doesn't LOL!
 
pclark

pclark

Well-known member
mezz said:
Being positive is one thing, however, John also taught us not to hold too much faith in anything beyond a 3-4 day forecast. Yes, things can change, it's happened before, we'll just have to wait and see when that change can happen. I'm tired of the roller coaster, something has to give sooner or later. Accuweather??? Not a fan, just say'n.
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How true, went to bed Sunday night, supposed to get maybe an inch, woke up to 6”.
 
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attakman

Well-known member
Here is a crazy stat...over the last 110 years there have only been 7 years, where there was no snow for Christmas (1913,1923,1943,1960,1979,1994, and 2002)...as you can see the last time we had a Brown Christmas was 21 years ago (this data all comes from Rhinelander, as it's the only location in our neck of Northwoods that has kept historical weather records)

Historically, a "white" Christmas (an inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning) occurs 52% of the time at Two Rivers, 60-70% of the time at Kewaunee and Manitowoc, 65-75% of the time in Green Bay and the Fox Valley, 85-95% in Wausau-Wisconsin Rapids-Stevens Point, and over 95% of the time in Rhinelander and far north-central Wisconsin. Lac Vieux Desert in Vilas County has nearly a 100% chance of a "white" Christmas.

The chances of a "white" Christmas this year are slim as there is no snow cover across much of the area and very mild conditions expected Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Record or near record high temperatures are expected on Christmas Day with readings in the middle 40s to lower 50s. These readings are about 20 degrees above the normal high. The low temperatures on Christmas morning will be in the middle 30s to lower 40s, or some 5 to 10 degrees above the normal high for the date. In addition, rainfall amounts of a quarter to three quarters of an inch are expected Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
 
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Tuck

Active member
annual New Years trip to Land O will have no snow, heck I am starting to wonder if our Jan 17 trip will.
 
indy_500

indy_500

Well-known member
Tuck said:
annual New Years trip to Land O will have no snow, heck I am starting to wonder if our Jan 17 trip will.
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Yep, I got a trip planned to Boulder junction the 18th and am definitely skeptical at this point. Might have to dig deeper into the lake effect snow belt areas at that time.
 
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Tuck

Active member
ha boulder is where are scheduled to be as well Jan 17-22. Hopefully cold and snow starts up.
 
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whitedust

Well-known member
mezz

mezz

Well-known member
On top of that, in looking at that, & I am no meteorologist / scientist, but it doesn't appear to me that the midwest would benefit from it, at least not to the degree that is indicated for the Central US & the East Coast. If the vortex does change the course of the current weather pattern by way of providing a more "wintery weather pattern" it would appear to be a short lived period. Too far out & too many what ifs, only time will tell one way or the other.
 
BigSix

BigSix

Active member
Using the Storm Radar app, here in Green Bay the low is not forecast to go below freezing until 12/28 and the high stays above freezing until 01/01. Beyond 12/27, seems like very little moisture is in the forecast for the entire period. :mad: Keep the faith; this has happened before. Maybe I should have kept my Goldwing ready to ride!
Think Snow!
 
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attakman

Well-known member
Just an FYI....Ice Conditions are deteriorating in northern Wisconsin ...we had an ice shack go through Lake Alice two days ago, and just today, a 65 year old man went through the ice on the Spirit Flowage, while riding his four wheeler, he is fine (no word on recovery of the 4 wheeler)...it's currently raining lightly, and 44 degrees ...6 inches of ice two days ago, is now 3-4, and soft
 
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