Question on social distancing
- Thread starter james88
- Start date
You will find the answer to your theory once we all get back tested via antibodies testing. I did believe that to be the case a while ago, but now doubt it.
I think at most 25 percent of the population has been exposed to the virus, and 75 percent has not yet been exposed... I think you would have seen a lot more cases in California if the virus was spreading like crazy in Jan-Feb.....and in Illinois. I think it has spread like crazy in New York due to the density of the city...28k people per square mile......and same for New Orleans.... New York also has a very unhealthy state in terms of obesity, diabetes and other health issues compared to rest of USA.
I think at most 25 percent of the population has been exposed to the virus, and 75 percent has not yet been exposed... I think you would have seen a lot more cases in California if the virus was spreading like crazy in Jan-Feb.....and in Illinois. I think it has spread like crazy in New York due to the density of the city...28k people per square mile......and same for New Orleans.... New York also has a very unhealthy state in terms of obesity, diabetes and other health issues compared to rest of USA.
CrossfireLOW
Member
I think there are two keys to getting everything back to normal over the next few months:
1. Increased testing and screening of cases so that those who are infected but may not know it can self quarantine until they are no longer contagious.
2. Treatment of Covid-19 limiting the progression of symptoms from to avoid hospitalization and ventilation.
Once these two items are accomplished then Covid-19 becomes "just another swine flu" like we all thought it was a few months ago.
For number 1, this is happening at places like the Mayo Clinic, private companies, and Universities all over the world. The problem is waiting for it is like waiting for a pot of water to boil. It's going to happen it just seems like its taking forever.
For number 2, there are a lot of drug trials going on hopefully something will click. My hopes are that blood plasma transfusions from recovered patients works well. If you have ever seen how effective this can be for some diseases, you would see how this is hopefully the best stop gap measure before an effective vaccine can be deployed.
1. Increased testing and screening of cases so that those who are infected but may not know it can self quarantine until they are no longer contagious.
2. Treatment of Covid-19 limiting the progression of symptoms from to avoid hospitalization and ventilation.
Once these two items are accomplished then Covid-19 becomes "just another swine flu" like we all thought it was a few months ago.
For number 1, this is happening at places like the Mayo Clinic, private companies, and Universities all over the world. The problem is waiting for it is like waiting for a pot of water to boil. It's going to happen it just seems like its taking forever.
For number 2, there are a lot of drug trials going on hopefully something will click. My hopes are that blood plasma transfusions from recovered patients works well. If you have ever seen how effective this can be for some diseases, you would see how this is hopefully the best stop gap measure before an effective vaccine can be deployed.
There's talk that Cali had it before anywhere else and developed herd immunity to it.
That's because it's been discovered eating cheese increases your risk of coming down with it.
Or... maybe because NYC's numbers keep going through the roof! Both make about as much sense as each other to extend it for another 5 weeks!
Don't worry, you will get your chance to take shot at all of us Michiganders, our Governer will do the same any day now! Probably ban flying kites too, as we are coming into that season.
sweeperguy
Active member
Stanford performed 3000 of these antibody tests a week ago on healthy individuals and hopefully the results will be out soon.
Funny you say this, there have been kids out my window flying kits for the last three weeks, all sorts of sizes, bigger and bigger every other day! I assume they are ordering new and bigger ones as they get good at it! They are on school grounds, I hope they leave the kids alone.....
The Stanford back study of 3000 people test results are in. About 3 percent had the virus, but with no symptoms. Now the article says it is "widespread" but imo, I see it as not being widespread with a 3 percent positive rate
Thus, more than likely northern Wisconsin folks have not been exposed to the virus.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/antibody-...avirus-may-far-more-widespread-155200568.html
Thus, more than likely northern Wisconsin folks have not been exposed to the virus.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/antibody-...avirus-may-far-more-widespread-155200568.html
here in PA< things are not really slowing down it seems, and the state government is taking more steps at trying to curb things
as of Monday next week, it will be mandatory(according to local TV news tonight)
that anyone out in public MUST be wearing a face mask
and no one will be allowed in any store or business without wearing one!
and can be fined if caught without one
we are at 30,000 verified cases and climbing here!
MY parents live on a dead end road, of just 4 homes, and just found out there next door neighbors Both have it
my parents are age 90 and 75, both with many health issue's and very scared now.
so again, just cause some places have lower numbers or cases doesn't mean all is well or cannot get very bad, if folks here keep traveling, and other places with higher numbers, , it can still be a wild ride till a cure is developed or vaccine is made !
and also keep in mind, there are most likely thousands that have it and don;t even know it, or have been tested to know they have it!
as of Monday next week, it will be mandatory(according to local TV news tonight)
that anyone out in public MUST be wearing a face mask
and no one will be allowed in any store or business without wearing one!
and can be fined if caught without one
we are at 30,000 verified cases and climbing here!
MY parents live on a dead end road, of just 4 homes, and just found out there next door neighbors Both have it
my parents are age 90 and 75, both with many health issue's and very scared now.
so again, just cause some places have lower numbers or cases doesn't mean all is well or cannot get very bad, if folks here keep traveling, and other places with higher numbers, , it can still be a wild ride till a cure is developed or vaccine is made !
and also keep in mind, there are most likely thousands that have it and don;t even know it, or have been tested to know they have it!
Another good article on the Stanford study, the virus has a much lower death rate than people thought, but unfortunately it looks like most people have not been exposed to the virus:
Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not. To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought
Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not. To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought
sweeperguy
Active member
Pretty confusing. 3% of population has Corona?
But earlier in the article it says 50-85 times more common than official figures. This was a sample size similar to the other. Around 3000. Which is a VERY SMALL sampling to conclude any type of relevance to the US population.
No wonder there is a lot of misinformation when one article seems to have contradictions in it.
snobuilder
Well-known member
if herd immunity is the goal why did we shut down the economy and social distance and are staying scared at home?
They get the 3 percent infected assumption based on the 3000 people who were back tested. In that population (which we can in theory apply to all population areas), 3 percent of the people had it, but showed no symptions.
On that particular date, the county of 1.8 million in Santa Clara only had 1000 people who tested positive, but if you scale up this 3 percent figure to the whole county, about 54,000 people (3 percent or so) out of 1.8 million in the county had the virus. That really lowers the death rate to 39 deaths/54,0000 infected to a very very low "death rate", as opposed to 39/1000 infected
If 97 percent did not have it, why do they say it "spreads so quickly???"
If you get the virus, you have a 2 in 1000 chance of death is what Stanford is basically showing.....(.0002) or .02 percent
On that particular date, the county of 1.8 million in Santa Clara only had 1000 people who tested positive, but if you scale up this 3 percent figure to the whole county, about 54,000 people (3 percent or so) out of 1.8 million in the county had the virus. That really lowers the death rate to 39 deaths/54,0000 infected to a very very low "death rate", as opposed to 39/1000 infected
If 97 percent did not have it, why do they say it "spreads so quickly???"
If you get the virus, you have a 2 in 1000 chance of death is what Stanford is basically showing.....(.0002) or .02 percent
Crazy 'stay at home' extension for WI with such low numbers. I can only imagine that most expected the midwest to all be similar and like MI and IL. Outside of the obvious (DET and CHI) why are there drastic numbers between neighboring states? I know early on folks were expecting OH to have higher numbers than mi and the opposite has occurred. THere are so many unknowns and at some point it's just time to get back at it and do our best to minimize exposure.
Question....is gov evers a democrat....hmmmm