Snowfalls this Winter
- Thread starter blkhwkbob
- Start date
Had a pair 1 -2 punch in early Jan that were over achievers dumped about 14 inches together in 2 days other than that no big snows in Phelps but typical clippers add up for us. The Jan thaw was the problem child lasted way too long took 30 inches down to 10 or less. Trails in Vilas pretty good now if on regular grooming schedule varies form town to town. Glass half full I guess.
I'm with you WD. We've had some of both ways at home here. 2 were to the better very much more than forecast to be. How ever the total snowfall, and the Jan warm up, really disappointing!!!
When it comes to xcr440's comment, I totally disagree. I watch the weather very close year around!
Guilty ad charged! Although the entire planet might be bragging a bit! True, I love snow, so as hard as I try, I do tend to take a glass half full approach with my numbers.
With that said, what was so terribly wrong with the latest storm forecast?
Sometimes I think it is a little of both, me being optimistic and some seeing 1-4" forecasted and automatically thinking 4" will fall...not one.
-John
John, your 1-2 day forecasts are nearly spot on, but I take anything further out with a grain of salt. I know I know, people will bash me for making the comment, but we all know, things change with the weather, and its a tough job forecasting.
And don't get me wrong, I too am a glass half full guy, but I always hope when your 5-10 comes out, that I am not in the bulls-eye, as it almost always moves.
Everyone remembers when snow seemed deeper when they were kids. But now, we're old and it is less of an event along with the fact we look for good snow to play - makes most winters seem disappointing. Yet just 3 years ago (2013/2014) was brutal.
Seems there were more clippers & cold when I worked in the Twin Cities but, I suppose the clippers by their nature slid SE and so typically missed Vilas then too. And working on the ramp at MSP was cold and windy too!
Seems there were more clippers & cold when I worked in the Twin Cities but, I suppose the clippers by their nature slid SE and so typically missed Vilas then too. And working on the ramp at MSP was cold and windy too!
Thanks for the clarification xcr440. That makes a lot of sense. The 5-10 day map is a bit of a bone of contention to me as well. I wish I had the the time each day to get into all the contingencies that are attached to that map on most days!
I have even thought about not doing it, but I put a feeler out there and most said that I should keep it.
I guess I could do more towards explaining that ANY forecast out beyond day 2-3 takes on a whole new list of challenges for the models and forecasters! That might get some to look at that map and see what is the potential, but not locked in stone. For what it is worth, that is also the map that I have tried the most to reign in my optimism! Not quite fully there yet! Maybe a new design for the map would help. Somehow better explain the chances for some of the snows included in that map.
-John
I have even thought about not doing it, but I put a feeler out there and most said that I should keep it.
I guess I could do more towards explaining that ANY forecast out beyond day 2-3 takes on a whole new list of challenges for the models and forecasters! That might get some to look at that map and see what is the potential, but not locked in stone. For what it is worth, that is also the map that I have tried the most to reign in my optimism! Not quite fully there yet! Maybe a new design for the map would help. Somehow better explain the chances for some of the snows included in that map.
-John
T
Tracker
Guest
you guys better get out there....its been snowing like crazy....crazy deep too....and from what I see the demarcation line of snow was always Indianapolis.....now its about Milwaukee.....and I better not hear youse guys complaining in april either....booo hooo its still cold and snowy, wheres the warm weather at.....I gotta get my boat out....boo hooo....whinny whinny.....let them soak up some moisture so you aint a raisin lad....and john....you predictions have been awesome dude....there is at least 5 feet in da woods.....the Canadian geese have moved more north too....all CLEAR EVIDENCE of shifting and not warming so much.....so when its still snowing when its supposed to be summer get a grip fellas....sled....till ya cants no more....then get out the jetski....and ATV....its what you'll do from now on...and it will get worse....embrace it and use it...am I the only one that can see this happening....or is it similar to bigfoot....where 100's see and hear and get prints...yet everyone says....I see no evidence...for gods sake men...and women....its right there in front of you....all of it for the taking....so as I always say......DONT LET FEAR STOP YOU
I noticed that too, thought it was my imagination.
John you do a fine job forecasting in all segments as far as I'm concerned!!! I just want to thank you for all of your interest, and effort to do your best!!! If for what ever reason you would quit, I would be in everlasting withdrawal!!! Yes I'm a weather nut, year around.
I always try to average out John's forecast with my local TV guys and then look at the potential scenarios with the GFS forecast. That GFS is not bad on weather system directions on the 10day.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-10-day-forecast.htm
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-10-day-forecast.htm
indy_500
Well-known member
In John's defense you have to read both his graphic and text... a lot of times people get superr excited when they see pink because that means 2 feet is coming right? Then they get upset when over a span of 3 days we get 12", which clearly his graphic said was coming.... but everyone just wanted to see 2 feet.
And a whinny whinny to you as well!
Got to remember 7-10 days out is a lot of time for models to change. I always read the text then look at graphics watch things firm up at 3 days out. My winter weather life would be very boring without JDs long range forecasts...the locals will never talk up a storm a week out even 4 days out a lot of storm track doubt with a CO low. Clippers who cares.... Vilas always gets a bit here and there plus LES adds up so totals usually work out or close to it. Snow totals drop off dramatically just east of Phelps ...not sure why but observed less east for 13 years. Also much more snow in Phelps than Eagle River just 17 miles NE but many inches more in Phelps every year.