Ok, this it probably an over reaction and I will probably regret this, but I guess I just need to vent.
It is obvious to anyone that the forecast did not pan out as thought. The storm hit about 150 miles further south than anticipated.
I've been forecasting for over 30 years now and have had more than my fair share of bombs. It stinks, no way around it, but I just try and learn all I can and move on. Today was a double whammy with not only having to deal with the bombed forecast, but also have the heavier snow miss me.
What really has gotten me though is the actions of a few that apparently visit the site. Last night I get an e mail from someone that is complaining that my forecast for 5-10" in NW IA totally bombed because they got 0". So I start to thinking that I did not remember saying that NW IA would get that much in my latest forecast. I look and sure enough, I have the NW 20-25 miles or so getting 2-4" and my text says places like far NW IA could get 2-5". I do a little further checking and overnight, the far NW corner of IA gets 2". So I e mail the guy back this morning (not sure why I even wasted my time) and his reply is that "a week ago I called for them to get 6-10"".
Move on to this evening, when I get this doozy:
John - I have been following your weekly forecasts for upper Michigan for few years . 8-12 inches for U.P. through December 15th. dont think so, this so called storm is now a 2-4 inch storm and the temps for the rest of the upcoming week are now mid to high 30's with rain ? what happen to the big change in the pattern you talked about all last week? cold temps and snow ? are now nothing but a lie , do you get payed to do this if so I recommend another career path.
First off, the 15th is still 6 days away! So the forecast has not even had a chance to bomb yet. Secondly, from all the forecasts I look at, there is none calling for temps in the mid to high 30's with rain. All call for temps to be below freezing, except Thursday when the high is 34 for most of the UP. Plus some snows are seen after this storm and before the 15th is over. So it is not even completely out of the realm of possibilities that between now and the 15th 8" will fall.
Anyway, I guess I just needed to vent. I know that there are also some very great folks in this activity and have had the pleasure to meet many. I just wish that there was a way to ship people like this to a different planet.
I feel better already. Time for bed.
-John
It is obvious to anyone that the forecast did not pan out as thought. The storm hit about 150 miles further south than anticipated.
I've been forecasting for over 30 years now and have had more than my fair share of bombs. It stinks, no way around it, but I just try and learn all I can and move on. Today was a double whammy with not only having to deal with the bombed forecast, but also have the heavier snow miss me.
What really has gotten me though is the actions of a few that apparently visit the site. Last night I get an e mail from someone that is complaining that my forecast for 5-10" in NW IA totally bombed because they got 0". So I start to thinking that I did not remember saying that NW IA would get that much in my latest forecast. I look and sure enough, I have the NW 20-25 miles or so getting 2-4" and my text says places like far NW IA could get 2-5". I do a little further checking and overnight, the far NW corner of IA gets 2". So I e mail the guy back this morning (not sure why I even wasted my time) and his reply is that "a week ago I called for them to get 6-10"".
Move on to this evening, when I get this doozy:
John - I have been following your weekly forecasts for upper Michigan for few years . 8-12 inches for U.P. through December 15th. dont think so, this so called storm is now a 2-4 inch storm and the temps for the rest of the upcoming week are now mid to high 30's with rain ? what happen to the big change in the pattern you talked about all last week? cold temps and snow ? are now nothing but a lie , do you get payed to do this if so I recommend another career path.
First off, the 15th is still 6 days away! So the forecast has not even had a chance to bomb yet. Secondly, from all the forecasts I look at, there is none calling for temps in the mid to high 30's with rain. All call for temps to be below freezing, except Thursday when the high is 34 for most of the UP. Plus some snows are seen after this storm and before the 15th is over. So it is not even completely out of the realm of possibilities that between now and the 15th 8" will fall.
Anyway, I guess I just needed to vent. I know that there are also some very great folks in this activity and have had the pleasure to meet many. I just wish that there was a way to ship people like this to a different planet.
I feel better already. Time for bed.
-John
