Actually, as long as you get within 10% of what you owe, you can write a check at tax time with no penalty.
Having said that, if the job pays significantly more than the last one, you should take one exemption, and expect to pay some. If the job does not pay any more than the last one or less, find your taxes from last year and if you got a big refund, then increase your exemptions to wipe it out over the year. If you had to pay at tax time then duplicate the exemptions you had with your last job.
What you don't want to do is have to pay a bunch at tax time and a penalty for under estimating what you owe...
Most good tax programs like TAXACT or Turbo TAX will let you plan by estimating what you should withhold and or increase exemptions to match what your tax will likely be.
You can't really go wrong with taking one exemption to start, and then if the refund is greater than 10% of the taxes you actually paid, then next year tell payroll to increase your exemption each year until you owe a little bit. Start a small side business to write off a ton of stuff you can't now, and it will increase your pay from the real money maker because you can take more than you made from the business against that paying job....total equals less taxes. And that is what you really want to accomplish here. Anyone who doesn't do this is losing out at tax time.