THE MILLION DOLLAR HOAX-Land O Lakes WI

[Winter Warlock]

yesterday we started with promise and 3" of fresh wet snow......then there it was GONE!

rained all day and pretty much all night. any of the snow that was on the ground,from before and the fresh 3", had turned to slush and this morning is solid ice. Even though there are some spotty snow flurries now, there is not even enough "lube" to ride on the lakes now.

The week before Christmas we cancelled our first trip to the Keweenaw. Now have a trip I'll be cancelling to Munisng and Grand Marrais MI
scheduled to start Jan 3rd.

IS THERE ANY RIDEABLE SNOW IN THE UP?

Looks like Minnesota got alot of snow in West and NW but it did'nt even hit the whole north so who knows what trails will be open there and when they will have those ready to go.

Sooooo what to do eh?!

You would tink dat wit all this modern technology that we'd be able to predict a snowstorm better than in the past. (at least somewhat close!) Everyone was fooled and now most of us are worse off than before the "Million dollar snowstorm"!!!

There will be alot of beverages consumed alot of talk and NO RIDING!

 

[MKW]

We have a lake home in NW Wisconsin. We were WAY inside the pink area on the snow prediction maps so 12-24"posted on Weds, the day before the storm. We ended up with 3" of wet slop!! and a ton of rain. Not even remotely close to 12-24"!! Funny all the hype about these storms before hand...but not a word after. I have yet to hear an explanation as to what happened to all the snow? I realize that's its weather and its difficult to predict but..12-24" and only received 3"...come on!!

 

[Admin]

We have a lake home in NW Wisconsin. We were WAY inside the pink area on the snow prediction maps so 12-24"posted on Weds, the day before the storm. We ended up with 3" of wet slop!! and a ton of rain. Not even remotely close to 12-24"!! Funny all the hype about these storms before hand...but not a word after. I have yet to hear an explanation as to what happened to all the snow? I realize that's its weather and its difficult to predict but..12-24" and only received 3"...come on!!

It's called a forecast for a reason. I will be the first to admit that this one just decided to do its own thing. Although I do not have the resources to dig deeply into what happened. I can say that I was very surprised at the lack of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning across eastern MN, northern WI and the SW/south central UP. It appears as though the storm become stronger than was indicated by the models. This caused a much stronger southerly flow into these areas at the mid-altitudes. Which caused the snow to be much shorter in duration and the change over to rain quicker.

Looking back, I see that my excitement for the storm and what it looked like it would do in these areas was taken as hype. I can honestly say that I am not a hype kind of guy. Anyone that knows me can vouch for that. That does not mean that taking it as hype was a dumb thing, just a miscommunication. I don't think I will ever lose my excitement for a big snow storm to hit. It is just in my blood. I will try and keep emotions out of the forecast as much as I can, but no promises.

So now that I have explained things, can I charge extra, you know like.. building contractors, electricians, plumbers, HVAC folks, mechanics, computer repair folks, doctors or ANYONE installing just about ANYTHING... and all the other occupations that get paid EXTRA when they are wrong?

-John

 

[thugboy]

your not tom skilling that's for sure

 

[MKW]

Thanks for the explanation John..thats really all I was looking for. The local weather channels don't offer us up anything in the way of an explanation. I do estimating for a construction company, unfortunately I don't get to charge extra when my estimate or bid was wrong...I've got to eat it!
Thanks again...hopefully we'll get a snow pak soon...

 

[Winter Warlock]

snow predictions

It's called a forecast for a reason. I will be the first to admit that this one just decided to do its own thing. Although I do not have the resources to dig deeply into what happened. I can say that I was very surprised at the lack of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning across eastern MN, northern WI and the SW/south central UP. It appears as though the storm become stronger than was indicated by the models. This caused a much stronger southerly flow into these areas at the mid-altitudes. Which caused the snow to be much shorter in duration and the change over to rain quicker.

Looking back, I see that my excitement for the storm and what it looked like it would do in these areas was taken as hype. I can honestly say that I am not a hype kind of guy. Anyone that knows me can vouch for that. That does not mean that taking it as hype was a dumb thing, just a miscommunication. I don't think I will ever lose my excitement for a big snow storm to hit. It is just in my blood. I will try and keep emotions out of the forecast as much as I can, but no promises.

So now that I have explained things, can I charge extra, you know like.. building contractors, electricians, plumbers, HVAC folks, mechanics, computer repair folks, doctors or ANYONE installing just about ANYTHING... and all the "Dr. other occupations that get paid EXTRA when they are wrong?

-John

maybe we could get "Dr. Evil" to steal a snow creating, climate controlling, lazer beam and we could all pay him to create snow whenever we need it! Great response John.......hey everyone was wrong on this one. The frustration level is "fevered" at this point.

If anyone has any ideas on where we could ride please pass them on.......Sieberia?

 

[Admin]

Thanks for the explanation John..thats really all I was looking for. The local weather channels don't offer us up anything in the way of an explanation. I do estimating for a construction company, unfortunately I don't get to charge extra when my estimate or bid was wrong...I've got to eat it!
Thanks again...hopefully we'll get a snow pak soon...

Wish I had that kind of luck with estimations! My favorite is when folks say a doctor can never make mistakes. Johns Hopkins estimates that a quarter million people die a year from doctor related errors. I was one of the lucky ones, I only have had to have things like a second open heart surgery done, or rushed to the emergency room for a wound that blew open!

maybe we could get "Dr. Evil" to steal a snow creating, climate controlling, lazer beam and we could all pay him to create snow whenever we need it! Great response John.......hey everyone was wrong on this one. The frustration level is "fevered" at this point.

If anyone has any ideas on where we could ride please pass them on.......Sieberia?

I cannot speak for any areas in N. WI and most of the UP, but in the Keweenaw from Calumet north, we saw 8-12" of snow fall with this event, with a 3 hour window of rain yesterday afternoon. Also, lots of MN and the Dakotas got their snow. I like the snow-creating laser beam idea though!

For all...Here is a map of my infamous million dollar storm forecast and what has happened. Note, my map actually included any snow that is still yet to fall today. I guess the thing I want to point out is that my forecast for N. WI and much of the UP was way off and that was amplified by the fact that these areas are SO IMPORTANT when it comes to snowmobiling, but from a pure weather standpoint, the forecast as a whole was not a bomb.


-John

 

[snipes517]

well, Looking at the predictions and the actual photo of the storm, Id say you were pretty darn accurate!! I still will only come here for my snow forecast UP and at home, which is on the IL/WI border straight north of Chicago. Keep up the good work! Its much appreciated.

 

[dwz]

Thanks JD for all your work for this site, and please keep UP your excitement [hype] !!!

 

[snowrat]

Your forecast accuracy is far and away better than others ALL THE TIME!!!! I greatly appreciate your site and your forecast! Thanks JohnDee!

 

[Attak man]

your not tom skilling that's for sure

Wow...kinda harsh dont ya think?? Where are u located in tomahawk??

 

[Skylar]

Remember people, John is a private meteorologist, he supplies custom weather forecasts for numerous clients, and has been very successful at this for 20 some years now? So, before you open yer trap and rip on the guy, if he sucked at his job, he still wouldn't be employed.

 

[dcsnomo]

your not tom skilling that's for sure

Maybe you should ask for your money back...oh, wait...

 

[woodside]

I'm sure John would like to see ALL of his area blessed with ample snow from this event and in probably more disappointed than anyone. Mother Nature is in control and not a bunch of computers and folks who do their best to put together a weather forecast. .

 

[Iowa Rider]

Wish I had that kind of luck with estimations! My favorite is when folks say a doctor can never make mistakes. Johns Hopkins estimates that a quarter million people die a year from doctor related errors. I was one of the lucky ones, I only have had to have things like a second open heart surgery done, or rushed to the emergency room for a wound that blew open!



I cannot speak for any areas in N. WI and most of the UP, but in the Keweenaw from Calumet north, we saw 8-12" of snow fall with this event, with a 3 hour window of rain yesterday afternoon. Also, lots of MN and the Dakotas got their snow. I like the snow-creating laser beam idea though!

For all...Here is a map of my infamous million dollar storm forecast and what has happened. Note, my map actually included any snow that is still yet to fall today. I guess the thing I want to point out is that my forecast for N. WI and much of the UP was way off and that was amplified by the fact that these areas are SO IMPORTANT when it comes to snowmobiling, but from a pure weather standpoint, the forecast as a whole was not a bomb.
View attachment 59705

-John

John, I think you did a great job ! Your prediction looks very similar to the actual event. We all know you can't fool mother nature !
Thanks for your dedication, and please, DO show us your excitement ! We all love snow

 

[JimAndros]

Jeb,

12" in my yard and most everywhere in the MN arrowhead. Plenty of parking and a spare bedroom. Call me.
Jim

 

[Clintondf]

Thanks for the closure, John. So to move forward...the million dollar question is will there be the cumulative 8”-16” fall from monday - saturday as depicted in your maps from friday?!? I hope so. If so we will try and keep our jan3-6 trip. Where?? Who knows. But it will be a minimum 8 hour drive i know that. Im not afraid of driving to snow. Im in central indiana so its a must for a sledhead like myself. I know its the weekend so if we dont get a response I understand. I will wait till monday. Thanks

 

[mnystrom]

Jeb,

12" in my yard and most everywhere in the MN arrowhead. Plenty of parking and a spare bedroom. Call me.
Jim

Hey Andros! Happy New Year! Seeing not a lot of snow in the conover area yet but it’s coming. Guessing your dug back in working on AC and discovering the MN trails. February trip possible to Alvin will let you know!

 

[JimAndros]

Thanks Mark....
Did a quick 22 mile ride today on the grade to Alborn. Other trails aren't groomed yet.
I think Rinsem is doing a Lake Vermilion trip in Feb too.

 

[roc]

Thanks John I appreciate all you do for us
I rode Vilas Sat Boulder Junction PI Mani-waters all is good condition for early season riding and the base held up with all the traffic Clubs did the correct thing holding off on opening and let them set up with the cold weather

Happy New Year

Roc