Man....sure seems to be another bust on our hands. What ever happened to 3-4 months of winter?
Weather undergrounds discussion on next weeks storm potential....
Sunday through Tuesday... a few changes to the pattern are in store for the early portion of next week but the chances of a significant system have diminished due to poor agreement between the GFS and ec along with the placement of the system within each model. First, for Sunday, a modest surface cold front looks to swing through the region but it will be a quick-mover and fairly devoid of moisture so aside from isolated/scattered rain and snow showers, this system is rather weak. Going into early next week, there is agreement on the formation of a low pressure system in the central-northern rockies late Sunday but now there are much more northern tracks displayed by both the 30/00z GFS and 30/00z European model (ecmwf). Both models attempt to deepen the system over eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming Sunday night. Afterwards, the GFS swings it northeast into Manitoba province by Tuesday morning while the European model (ecmwf) swings it through the Dakotas and into northwest Minnesota by Tuesday morning. In either scenario, it is a warmer and less precip-intense system, highlighting precipitation along the cold front of the the system for Monday night into Tuesday (as opposed to any warm frontal precipitation which now looks to be shunted into northern Minnesota, north of the weather forecast office mpx coverage area). In addition, wrap-around precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday looks fairly unimpressive and the main question is where the front stalls out mid-week which would determine any persistent precipitation for the middle portion of next week. Plenty of uncertainty lurks with how these features evolve for next week, for sure, but confidence is low on having any storm systems produce significant precipitation for this area for early December.
Looks like a bust guys...sorry....
Weather undergrounds discussion on next weeks storm potential....
Sunday through Tuesday... a few changes to the pattern are in store for the early portion of next week but the chances of a significant system have diminished due to poor agreement between the GFS and ec along with the placement of the system within each model. First, for Sunday, a modest surface cold front looks to swing through the region but it will be a quick-mover and fairly devoid of moisture so aside from isolated/scattered rain and snow showers, this system is rather weak. Going into early next week, there is agreement on the formation of a low pressure system in the central-northern rockies late Sunday but now there are much more northern tracks displayed by both the 30/00z GFS and 30/00z European model (ecmwf). Both models attempt to deepen the system over eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming Sunday night. Afterwards, the GFS swings it northeast into Manitoba province by Tuesday morning while the European model (ecmwf) swings it through the Dakotas and into northwest Minnesota by Tuesday morning. In either scenario, it is a warmer and less precip-intense system, highlighting precipitation along the cold front of the the system for Monday night into Tuesday (as opposed to any warm frontal precipitation which now looks to be shunted into northern Minnesota, north of the weather forecast office mpx coverage area). In addition, wrap-around precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday looks fairly unimpressive and the main question is where the front stalls out mid-week which would determine any persistent precipitation for the middle portion of next week. Plenty of uncertainty lurks with how these features evolve for next week, for sure, but confidence is low on having any storm systems produce significant precipitation for this area for early December.
Looks like a bust guys...sorry....
