take your pick, they all say something different and changes from minute to minute, have seen storms predicted only to fizzle out right up to the day before. I rely on snow for business 3 months out of the year, I've given up on basing my business plans based on weather or seasonal predictions. I also like the rest of us like to play in it and like my business I don't plan my trips based on short, long or seasonal forecasts. I make plans...if they don't work I will plan another or have an alternative, in the end I hope for the best and if it doesn't work out there is nothing we can do. There is no guarantee with weather and you cannot plan based on forecasts. Lots of unknowns and change that can happen but no guarantees.
What trip(s) have you cancelled so far?
- Thread starter snoden
- Start date
CrossfireLOW
Member
For simplicity, there are basically 3 weather models that run 4 times a day and go out 14+ days. The GFS (American), European, and Canadian. There are more than that but those are the main ones and many websites that show them. All the data is the same, with different graphical interfaces.
What has happen over the last 5-10 years as weather phone apps have become more common is that the published forecasts have been going further and further out.
It used to be nobody even published forecast past day 7, because everyone knew how inaccurate that may be. But then to get more users, 10 day forecasts came out, then a competitor app promotes a 14 day forecast. Where do you think a those forecasts are coming from? They are not actually forecasts done by a human, they are compiled data from the latest computer model runs.
I have been watching weather computer models for a while and it took a long time to decipher what they are showing, but one of the first things I learned the hard way was how wildly the output from the computer models vary from run to run... Oh my the GFS is showing a 24" snowstorm for me in 10 days!... only for the next model run to revert back to warm, dry, and snowless, and the next one after that shifts the stormtrack by 500 miles.... etc.
Regarding this winter so far. If you were to draw a jet stream setup for the best snow pattern possible for the northern midwest, this winter has had the mirror image so far. Its pretty much the opposite of 2013-14 so far.
What has happen over the last 5-10 years as weather phone apps have become more common is that the published forecasts have been going further and further out.
It used to be nobody even published forecast past day 7, because everyone knew how inaccurate that may be. But then to get more users, 10 day forecasts came out, then a competitor app promotes a 14 day forecast. Where do you think a those forecasts are coming from? They are not actually forecasts done by a human, they are compiled data from the latest computer model runs.
I have been watching weather computer models for a while and it took a long time to decipher what they are showing, but one of the first things I learned the hard way was how wildly the output from the computer models vary from run to run... Oh my the GFS is showing a 24" snowstorm for me in 10 days!... only for the next model run to revert back to warm, dry, and snowless, and the next one after that shifts the stormtrack by 500 miles.... etc.
Regarding this winter so far. If you were to draw a jet stream setup for the best snow pattern possible for the northern midwest, this winter has had the mirror image so far. Its pretty much the opposite of 2013-14 so far.
lofsfire
Active member
I was defiantly one of these people that really enjoyed checking daily. The bad part about the weekend was that there was no weekend forecast. I completely understand why. So I was already missing the forecast for just the weekend... It's really felt now. Heck I liked when John even gave the rain forecast spring through fall. Either way I defiantly appreciated everything he did for us here.
It’s catch as catch can without John’s forecast and then share here. Not a lot we can do about it but hope for a significant change in weather patterns get some grooming accomplished and build a base. Then we have something to talk about with trail reports. For me pull up a comfortable chair and watch the Bear / Packer game turn off the stress meter on UP snow until a significant weather pattern change.
dfattack
Well-known member
I'm starting to get a touch optimistic about end of next week. My guess...maybe 20-25% chance. 3+" in Florence based on what I see on the cameras. 2-4" more Tuesday according to accuweather. Yes, I'm looking at the glass half full now. By Thursday we could have 6-8". If I'm not mistaken that's enough to start grooming?
indy_500
Well-known member
2-3” of fresh per the array of reports I’ve seen today. Believe they had an inch or 2 on the ground prior.
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pclark
Well-known member
Probably about 4-6”, doesn’t really matter because Vilas County has not opened the county yet. Most areas only have a max of 4” up here, I’m in Manitowish and it is thin, trails are not open. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
indy_500
Well-known member
Sayner barnstormers went out and panned today after 3”!
Gogebic Range Trail Authority and Gogebic Area Grooming posted today they won’t send their equipment out until they have a foot on the ground. Kind of disappointed to read that, as I have ridden Vilas with 8-12” on the ground and had decent trails. Often the trails in the southern half of WI open up with as little as 6”
Does he realize Vilas has not opened trails yet? Whoops forgot to hit post earlier today. If does open best expected conditions are early season which is tuff on hyfax and carbides doesn’t matter if rental sled. I suspect local money is getting impatient and will open soon but doesn’t mean it’s remotely good. I would wait it out for awhile.
goofy600
Well-known member
Indy, understand trails are all open in both of those areas as is my club so if anyone wants to ride them have at it. With that said most clubs try to let at least 8-12” fall and let some sleds do some of the packing before taking groomers out. I truly am not sure if there is a hard down rule in Michigan about how much snow has to be on the ground to start but I will be calling my dnr rep Monday and ask for sure. I am thinking if we can get 3-4 more, I will want to get my groomers out to pan and also clear trails again for any possible down trees from earlier weather. If my club had one of those rollers I definitely would be getting out soon to start packing. And a groomer just panning 6-10” of snow will pack that down to about 2” snow if that.
pclark
Well-known member
I would expect that local money is getting very impatient, but, 4” of snow isn’t going to cut it. Besides beating up the trails, rocks, ever ride 15 miles on rocks? The parking lots are bare, I know people just want to get out but they will open eventually. Clubs don’t want to ruin their grooming equipment so things won’t be groomed, I would say if we get another 6” on the ground they will start talking a bout opening trails.
SHOOT2KILL
Active member
The bullseye is still on So. Wi...Just slightly NW of where it has been on the GFS map for 7 days now...NWS-Milwaukee is now on board with a 5-9" snowfall Monday pm-Wed am in Rock Co...
All clubs have to be in agreement to open in Vilas County and also be inspected to make sure everything is safe. I think the biggest fear the clubs have right now is getting equipment stuck in the swampy areas. We also had a very wet fall as well as 4-5 complete meltdowns which add to the swamps which weren’t even frozen any more and have to start all over again.
I have seen the lake out my window freeze over several times and open back up.
The couple inches of snow we got on Tuesday was very light and didn’t have any packing capability and yesterdays 3-4 inches of snow was better and compacted nicely.
The snobunnies club for Winchester and Presque Isle were last out on the system December 5th doing additional tree removal.
This area here has seen more snow this season than most parts of the UP, which is shocking. I saw a report yesterday from Toivola, Mi. And then had about 4 inches on trail 3 and not rolling because they never do up there.
Hopefully things turn around!
I have seen the lake out my window freeze over several times and open back up.
The couple inches of snow we got on Tuesday was very light and didn’t have any packing capability and yesterdays 3-4 inches of snow was better and compacted nicely.
The snobunnies club for Winchester and Presque Isle were last out on the system December 5th doing additional tree removal.
This area here has seen more snow this season than most parts of the UP, which is shocking. I saw a report yesterday from Toivola, Mi. And then had about 4 inches on trail 3 and not rolling because they never do up there.
Hopefully things turn around!
hermie
Well-known member
I am guessing the lake snow guns will get going starting the end of next week. We will have to see which way the winds blow and who gets what. That's looks like the best chance to get some trails going up here. Hurley and Mercer are out rolling and they have the best chance of anybody in northern WI to get going. You would think they will get in on some lake snows. As far as system snows not looking to good unless a disturbance develops that the computers are missing which seems to happen daily so here's to hoping. Finding it hard to sleep at night my thumb just keeps twitching.
I live here full time and just letting others know what it was like in the fall, our clubs first brushing in October was really muddy and people were getting stuck everywhere on the system, I guess it was dry 90 miles away from here. I also have to monitor our lake chain water level which is controlled by a dam, even the amount coming through it now with all boards pulled is a lot at this time of the year.