What trip(s) have you cancelled so far?
- Thread starter snoden
- Start date
wiviperman
Active member
We canceled for this weekend in Eagle River, we have another planned for Manitowish Waters for the end of this month which I’m starting to wonder if that one will be a possibility!
dfattack
Well-known member
not looking good for the first trip
Canceled our trip to Eagle River for the Derby Jan 17-21. Even if we did get snow next week(none in the forecast)it would take a good couple weeks of rolling and packing/grooming etc to have trails rideable. Needs to stay cold for a couple weeks to freeze up swamps, creeks and lakes. Snow would not actually be good at this point until everything gets froze up.
Exactly, cold first otherwise trails aren't good.
I'm not throwing the towel in yet, although conditions far worse than last year, we were teetering on canceling our first trip last year this time which wasn't until the third week of January and mother nature got things done. I'm not going to dwell on the negative, rather hope for the best. Has been a lot of talk of potential change in weather patterns coming and instead of focusing on what we have now I'm hoping for the potential and there is still time for it yet. I rescheduled for the following week which would have been the same time we went last year, have a bag trip hopefully starting the 5th of feb thru the 10th and have dealer meetings later in month of February so doesn't leave me a lot of time to schedule something. Hoping for positive instead of dwelling on negative, lots can change in a hurry if the right conditions present themselves, that's what I'm hoping for and at this point more so for the businesses who rely on it, secondly so we can ride! looking forward to riding with you guys again!not looking good for the first trip
renegade600
Active member
Just called the January 18-21 annual trip from Boulder Junction to Houghton.... have another planned for February 8-11, but not too sure on that one yet....... No cold weather is the biggest problem, if everything was Frozen hard a good dump would be workable. This no cold and not freezing the swamps and lakes will really shoot this year....
plus and I hope it plays out this way for businesses up north, I think its important to book now if you can any alternates as once snow does arrive, places to stay will be at a premium as far as availability goes and don't want to be stuck without a place to stay when it does come
favoritos
Well-known member
You bring up a couple of good points.
This has to be brutal for businesses that like our money to pay the bills. No snow isn't good for business right now.
I know the businesses will be dang happy to see us come when conditions get better. I'll be dang happy to see some of those familiar faces.
We book rooms for every other week through the winter and kinda hope we win the weather lottery. The practice has been hit and miss over the years. I've rode in rain and drove home in blizzards during the same trip.
In low snow years, the places tend to start filling up one day after a big dump of snow. They usually stay busy the remainder of the week. Last winter started out funky with a rather late start and then switched to alternating weeks of good snow and brutal cold. Trail conditions were all over the place early in the season. It was hard to find overnight rooms for back pack trips when snow was good. When snow was bad, we had places to ourselves.
Late season riding was incredible last year. In the end, snow was scattered all over the area and people rode closer to home. Good for us, but hard on business.
Right now it looks like anyone that gets snow will get busy.
I lived in Big Bay, MI over the winter of 97, it was awful but at least there was some snow pack at this time, we had a storm over Halloween and then a few mild LES events that kept at least 6 inches on the ground by this time.
This year is worse, in the 7 years owning my place up here (near Grand Marais), I have never seen so little snow on the ground.
John nailed this years seasonal forecast so far, will there be periods of snow play? Has to be, it would be unbelievable to see a winter in the Yoop without it.
I really feel bad for everyone having to cancel your trips, and the businesses that rely on you all. Hang in there!
Time to do the Heika Lunta Dance!
Bullitt69! I'm with you focusing on the potential positive!!! As much as this weather is affecting me and my business I am hoping it goes North!! I have reservations for the week of the 15th and the 22nd, not giving up hope yet, not dwelling on the negative, Thanks for posting some positive hope!!
SHOOT2KILL
Active member
It already shifted southeast from yesterdays GFS forecast map to todays...Yesterday western Iowa was forecast for 18"+...Same area today is 1"...Central Mo forecast for 24"...Central il forecast for 18"...Yesterdays bullseye area of between Chicago & Madison has shifted to far S.E. Wi...Current forecast looks real good for the entire L.P. of Mi with 12"+ blanketing the entire area...
I think there are different storm systems being discussed here. #1 this weekend is tracking thru the south then heading up the east coast. National weather channels and local Midwest tv not forecasting any snow for WI or MI over this weekend. #2 storm follows #1 but too far out in the Pacific to forecast. #3 storm even further out in the Pacific than 2. I enjoy all the information we can share on these 3 storms as details become clear. I would also like to discourage double and triple booking of hotels on the come this does nothing but screw up reservations for everyone. The reality of trail grooming is you don’t go from bare ground to very good or good conditions it takes time to build a base cover up rocks and let the stones settle on the groomed grades. Imo take a deep breath and make your travel decisions on the facts not on fiction. Rip away if you please but that’s been my experience living 16 years in the Northwoods.
SHOOT2KILL
Active member
LOL...Heres the same GFS map program that JD used...This is a 10 day animated forecast for the midwest...If you dont understand how to use it, or read it, let me know...
Accumulated Snowfall (GFS 10-dayforecast)
Accumulated Snowfall (GFS 10-dayforecast)
weatherstreet.com
Last edited:
mezz
Well-known member
I don't recall him using that particular site. COD - College of DuPage forecast models were what I saw him using on the Snow Church Videos. I am sure he may have had some additional sources that he used, but, I don't recall him using weatherstreet. Every Model that I looked through on the COD site shows something different. The one thing that they have in common right now is things avoiding the Midwest diving south & heading up the Eastern US except for the Euro & GFS Kuchera snowfall models of which I believe are thrown off due to the current El Nino as I think these models calculate past historic averages as well as current conditions. If these models were near as accurate as they have been in the past, we certainly would have had different results than what they have displayed so far. Here in the Keweenaw, these models showed 1-3" last night, we received a trace to 1/8" of which came after a brief freezing drizzle. Again, anything beyond 1-4 days as John would say is like looking at la-la land. Right now, even the 1-4 day is a crap shoot.
SHOOT2KILL
Active member
The GFS map can be accessed from several different weather sites...I use weatherstreet because they also have a local snow depth map for different areas that I ride...Updated daily, and actually very consistent with snow totals...