Winter 2012-2013

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thundersnow

New member
Just wondering what kind of winter you all think we are in store for? I know the last couple have sucked and it feels like we are stuck in a rut of bad winters but I did a little research today and I think we could be in for a good one. I saw today that this summer for many places was the third warmest on record and it has always seemed to me that when we have a real hot summer it seems like we get a real cold and snowy winter, maybe wishful thinking but summer how its suppose to be means winter how its suppose to be right?? Anyways, i went and did a little research and found that summer of 2005 was the hottest on record for alot of places in Michigan, I first looked through John's 2005-2006 journals and noticed that the snow started mid to late november and just got pounded throughout december, had a bit of a lull through january then got pounded again in february and had a huge storm in march and John was still riding into the first week or 2 of April. The snow total was about 250" which is no record but is a pretty decent total, I think the main thing I noticed was very minimal thaws, there were like 2 of them and they were a day or 2 and didn't do much damage. I also looked through 05-06 at Americanoakresort.com which is the Houghton Lake area here in the Lower and it was pretty much the same exact pattern, and they had some pretty rough winters from about 01-05 then got into a string of some pretty good winters then the last couple have sucked. So here is my very "well educated" and "scientific" guess that this winter will be a great one (please please please)!! And will start a big string of great winters for us snow lovers in the midwest! I still can't get last year out of my mind though, I live near Lansing and have been riding ever since I was about 5 years old back in 1992 so about 20 years of riding and have never gone a winter where we did not have a single day around home where you could ride, well this past year it finally happened, I consider able to ride 6 inches or more around here and we never had a storm over 5". Anyways just wondering what you all are expecting this upcoming winter? I am so anxious for it to get here and am keeping my fingers crossed!!
 
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ezra

Well-known member
well I am not planing on droping 10k on a trail sled for around the house but I did drop 29k on a new tow rig any more ????
 
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whitedust

Well-known member
Supposed to be a moderate el nino setting in for winter which means roller coaster winter for the midwest. Big storms can come thru depending on location of jet stream at a given time but there will be thaws too. Probably be an average winter snowfall wise but won't last long due to thaws. For me I'm getting used to limted snowfall & will ride right away & not wait for trails to get torn up. JD often will say get out there while you can a warm trend or rain coming & when he says that I ride everyday & sure enough the thaw conditions come & trails get trashed. Got to ride ASAP after snowfall.IMO JD will release best guess seasonal forecast soon & always interesting to see how winter turns out. I'm not hearing of any brutally cold & snowy winter forecasts for the midwest so far so just waiting game for now.:)
 
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thundersnow

New member
seems like every winter forecast you see says different things, I understand how they are all seeing different things? I know its alot of predicting but they all base their predictions off of the same types of factors, then you go look at their maps and they're completely different?
 
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snowdancer

New member
Well it certainly depends on how the jet stream runs. I'm just wondering what impact will occur, if any, because of the major meltdown of the polar ice caps. Scientists say they have never seen them melt in the summer like they did this year. I guess all we can do is wait and see what Mother Nature brings us. I'm thinking since I'm newly planted in the U.P. that it will probably snow it's but off and about 4 months from now I'm gona wonder what was I thinking?!:rolleyes:
 
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Hoosier

Well-known member
My uneducated opinion is that many of the weather prognosticators base their predictions way too much on what the past season looked like. This is natural, because it's the way our minds work. For example, 2 seasons ago was very good for much of the upper midwest. So, most of the forecasts I read for last year indicated it was going to be a good season. I would guess after the disaster last season, many are going to say this year will be bad or so-so at best.

My view on this hobby is that you have to be flexible - either in when you ride or where you ride, or maybe both. Our group needs to plan in advance, so we ended up having to drag our trail sleds out to Centennial last year to ride. The travel was more than double for us, but we found lots of snow and had a great time. And actually we spend less money since the miles don't add up on the sleds out there the same as they do in the UP. People out there said the snow was bad for them, but it was more snow than we are used to.

Bottom line, I think the law of averages says that this year will be a good one. Unless of course there is something to that global cooling/global warming/climate change/global climate disruption/ozone depletion/algore thing. I'm joking, I think. It might all be a coin flip - but of course it isn't that unprobable to flip 5 heads or tails in a row even if 50/50 odds.
 
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frnash

Active member
snowdancer said:
Well it certainly depends on how the jet stream runs. I'm just wondering what impact will occur, if any, because of the major meltdown of the polar ice caps. Scientists say they have never seen them melt in the summer like they did this year. I guess all we can do is wait and see what Mother Nature brings us. I'm thinking since I'm newly planted in the U.P. that it will probably snow it's but off and about 4 months from now I'm gona wonder what was I thinking?!:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

"Scientists say they have never seen [the polar ice caps] melt in the summer like they did this year." [?]

Just for contrast, this from Wikipedia, Greenland: Geography and climate:
Scientists who probed 2 km (1.2 mi) through a Greenland glacier to recover the oldest plant DNA on record said that the planet was far warmer hundreds of thousands of years ago than is generally believed. DNA of trees, plants, and insects including butterflies and spiders from beneath the southern Greenland glacier was estimated to date to 450,000 to 900,000 years ago, according to the remnants retrieved from this long-vanished boreal forest. That view contrasts sharply with the prevailing one that a lush forest of this kind could not have existed in Greenland any later than 2.4 million years ago. These DNA samples suggest that the temperature probably reached 10 °C (50 °F) in the summer and −17 °C (1.4 °F) in the winter. They also indicate that during the last interglacial period, 130,000–116,000 years ago, when local temperatures were on average 5 °C (9 °F) higher than now, the glaciers on Greenland did not completely melt away.
Click to expand...

And for good measure, from Wikipedia, Jurassic (Jurassic Period: 199.6–145.5 million years ago):

Mean surface temperature over period duration≈ 16.5°C (3°C above modern level)
Mean atmospheric CO[SUB]2[/SUB] content over period duration≈ 1950 ppm (7 times pre-industrial level)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Gee, I guess that was "Jurassic Global Warming!?
Where did all that CO[SUB]2[/SUB] come from, burning coal? Internal combustion engines burning petroleum products?
No? Musta been Dinosaur farts!
 
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EXCESSIVE FORCE

New member
frnash said:


"Scientists say they have never seen [the polar ice caps] melt in the summer like they did this year." [?]

Just for contrast, this from Wikipedia, Greenland: Geography and climate:


And for good measure, from Wikipedia, Jurassic (Jurassic Period: 199.6–145.5 million years ago):

Mean surface temperature over period duration≈ 16.5°C (3°C above modern level)
Mean atmospheric CO[SUB]2[/SUB] content over period duration≈ 1950 ppm (7 times pre-industrial level)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Gee, I guess that was "Jurassic Global Warming!? (Insert " here)
Where did all that CO[SUB]2[/SUB] come from, burning coal? Internal combustion engines burning petroleum products?
No? Musta been Dinosaur farts!
Click to expand...


Couldn't resist.....
 
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