Theories on this winter

[Vikingfan44]

So most of us Winter lovers had a optimistic view of the 2016-2017 upcoming winter in Oct. The El Nino of the year before had turned into a La Nina (small) and Russia, northern Alaska were all cold and getting snow by November.

Here in Eastern Iowa we started the season with several small storms that laid down wet snow that was great for starting a trail. Although the lows had past just barely to the south of us so northern Iowa has received more snow. By Christmas we were receiving rain and that has pretty much continued non-stop up until the last snow that hit last weekend. Again the Low was on top of us and we got the wrap around snow as it left, but Northern Iowa got pretty good snow.

We have travelled north quite a few times this snow season and it seems to be the same northern Iowa, southern Mn had some snow and then hardly any snow until you got above Minneapolis.

Obviously frustrating to those of us who look forward to snow, but what can you do? Nothing.

What has happened this year in your opinion?
Thanks
Mark

 

[whitedust]

Late start then too many long warm thaws with sun killed us and still in that pattern with an early end to winter. When it was cold it didn't snow so recovery from thaws was difficult. A difficult year begginning to end as trails closed today.

 

[JimAndros]

It was the 2nd "winter that wasn't" in a row.

 

[dfattack]

I would have to say it's the earliest season ending I've seen since I started riding again in 2002. Am I wrong??

 

[timo]

Last year was sooner I think. Third week of Feb it was over last year in northern wis.

Here in SE wis. it was a joke for the 2nd consecutive year.

Just read Chicago broke a 144 year record, not a single flake fell in the month of jan. or Feb.

I would have to say it's the earliest season ending I've seen since I started riding again in 2002. Am I wrong??

 

[whitedust]

I would have to say it's the earliest season ending I've seen since I started riding again in 2002. Am I wrong??

I agree Climate Change is real..sure we may have 1 good winter mixed in with 3-5 warm winters. Peeps who have limited time and opportunity to ride will find these warm winters very trying and difficult to schedule. Southern WI has always been snowfall... then ride next day...then gone in a week or not very good. Northern WI is starting to be like southern WI ...it is like winter moved 300 miles north in the midwest. The only snow that falls in quanties for consistent everyday snowmobiling is in the UP snowbelts. I fear peeps will tire of the UP comute from the south year after and year and sit on their hands or just sell out of snowmobiling as too stressful to get to the snow. The value of non current sleds is bottoming & used sleds will be even less. Right now a perfect storm of negative factors hitting the market and riders. We need good snow cover & cold weather for out sport to survive and these warm winters are killing us,the market and all snomo support biz. Sad but true.

 

[jd]

So most of us Winter lovers had a optimistic view of the 2016-2017 upcoming winter in Oct. The El Nino of the year before had turned into a La Nina (small) and Russia, northern Alaska were all cold and getting snow by November.

Here in Eastern Iowa we started the season with several small storms that laid down wet snow that was great for starting a trail. Although the lows had past just barely to the south of us so northern Iowa has received more snow. By Christmas we were receiving rain and that has pretty much continued non-stop up until the last snow that hit last weekend. Again the Low was on top of us and we got the wrap around snow as it left, but Northern Iowa got pretty good snow.

We have travelled north quite a few times this snow season and it seems to be the same northern Iowa, southern Mn had some snow and then hardly any snow until you got above Minneapolis.

Obviously frustrating to those of us who look forward to snow, but what can you do? Nothing.

What has happened this year in your opinion?
Thanks
Mark

I honestly cannot provide an answer for you. Science still knows very little about what makes the weather tick on a seasonal scale. Thus seasonal forecasts are pretty much still a guess.

I am not sure if we will get to the point where we can forecast on a seasonal scale with the same kind of success that a 1-3 day forecast has...at least not in our lifetimes! Perhaps something for our grandchildren's grandchildren.

-John

 

[mrbb]

MY winter here, , last month(feb) we were above average temps for 25 of the 28 days of the whole month, and broke many HIGH records on HIGH temps as well, broke about a dozen record in Jan and dec too for HIGH temps
winter never seemed to show up for more than a day or two and then warm up

we had more 40+ degree temps swings here in a 48 hr period than ever recored(says local weather station, I haven't fact checked)

But Friday was almost 80 here, Sat was 40 and Sunday was into the 20's and yesterday was into the high 50's?
57 today and calling for low 20's tonight!
as an example

its terrible any more, tree's start to bud WAY too early and then come comes and its screwing with a LOT of things that need more normal weather

LAST winter was WORSE and ALL the record highs have almost been set in the past 5-6 yrs

winters are NOT what they once were here anymore period and getting worse!

 

[Tracker]

GEO MAGNETIC REVERSAL and EARTHS MOLTEN CORE moving closer to crust....is the cause of climate change....global warming is not correct...because it wont warm but will be the same but opposite weather and seasons of what its been for eons in the area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal


Past field reversals can be and have been recorded in the "frozen" ferromagnetic (or, more accurately, ferrimagnetic) minerals of consolidated sedimentary deposits or cooled volcanic flows on land.




Character of transitions[edit]

Duration[edit]

Most estimates for the duration of a polarity transition are between 1,000 and 10,000 years,[10] but some estimates are as quick as a human lifetime.[1] Studies of 15-million-year-old lava flows on Steens Mountain, Oregon, indicate that the Earth's magnetic field is capable of shifting at a rate of up to 6 degrees per day.[20] This was initially met with skepticism from paleomagnetists. Even if changes occur that quickly in the core, the mantle, which is a semiconductor, is thought to remove variations with periods less than a few months. A variety of possible rock magnetic mechanisms were proposed that would lead to a false signal.[21] However, paleomagnetic studies of other sections from the same region (the Oregon Plateau flood basalts) give consistent results.[22][23] It appears that the reversed-to-normal polarity transition that marks the end of Chron C5Cr (16.7 million years ago) contains a series of reversals and excursions.[24] In addition, geologists Scott Bogue of Occidental College and Jonathan Glen of the US Geological Survey, sampling lava flows in Battle Mountain, Nevada, found evidence for a brief, several-year-long interval during a reversal when the field direction changed by over 50 degrees. The reversal was dated to approximately 15 million years ago.[25][26]

Magnetic field[edit]

The magnetic field will not vanish completely, but many poles might form chaotically in different places during reversal, until it stabilizes again.[27][28]



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_core



Growth of the inner core is thought to play an important role in the generation of Earth's magnetic field by dynamo action in the liquid outer core. This occurs mostly because it cannot dissolve the same amount of light elements as the outer core and therefore freezing at the inner core boundary produces a residual liquid that contains more light elements than the overlying liquid. This causes it to become buoyant and helps drive convection of the outer core.[citation needed] The existence of the inner core also changes the dynamic motions of liquid in the outer core as it grows and may help fix the magnetic field since it is expected to be a great deal more resistant to flow than the outer core liquid (which is expected to be turbulent).[citation needed]

 

[mrbb]

GEO MAGNETIC REVERSAL and EARTHS MOLTEN CORE moving closer to crust....is the cause of climate change....global warming is not correct...because it wont warm but will be the same but opposite weather and seasons of what its been for eons in the area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal


Past field reversals can be and have been recorded in the "frozen" ferromagnetic (or, more accurately, ferrimagnetic) minerals of consolidated sedimentary deposits or cooled volcanic flows on land.




Character of transitions[edit]

Duration[edit]

Most estimates for the duration of a polarity transition are between 1,000 and 10,000 years,[10] but some estimates are as quick as a human lifetime.[1] Studies of 15-million-year-old lava flows on Steens Mountain, Oregon, indicate that the Earth's magnetic field is capable of shifting at a rate of up to 6 degrees per day.[20] This was initially met with skepticism from paleomagnetists. Even if changes occur that quickly in the core, the mantle, which is a semiconductor, is thought to remove variations with periods less than a few months. A variety of possible rock magnetic mechanisms were proposed that would lead to a false signal.[21] However, paleomagnetic studies of other sections from the same region (the Oregon Plateau flood basalts) give consistent results.[22][23] It appears that the reversed-to-normal polarity transition that marks the end of Chron C5Cr (16.7 million years ago) contains a series of reversals and excursions.[24] In addition, geologists Scott Bogue of Occidental College and Jonathan Glen of the US Geological Survey, sampling lava flows in Battle Mountain, Nevada, found evidence for a brief, several-year-long interval during a reversal when the field direction changed by over 50 degrees. The reversal was dated to approximately 15 million years ago.[25][26]

Magnetic field[edit]

The magnetic field will not vanish completely, but many poles might form chaotically in different places during reversal, until it stabilizes again.[27][28]



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_core



Growth of the inner core is thought to play an important role in the generation of Earth's magnetic field by dynamo action in the liquid outer core. This occurs mostly because it cannot dissolve the same amount of light elements as the outer core and therefore freezing at the inner core boundary produces a residual liquid that contains more light elements than the overlying liquid. This causes it to become buoyant and helps drive convection of the outer core.[citation needed] The existence of the inner core also changes the dynamic motions of liquid in the outer core as it grows and may help fix the magnetic field since it is expected to be a great deal more resistant to flow than the outer core liquid (which is expected to be turbulent).[citation needed]

Tracker, I love how you love to defend against SO CALLED GLOBAL WARMING!

but if climate change makes things warmer, your splitting hair ain't you??
warmer than ever recorded winters here yr after yr in a row, and higher than ever recorded temps, and lower water tables than EVER around the world
IS< by definition, GLOBAL WARMING!

the GLOBE< world is getting warmer, you can add all the writings you like, but facts are, temps are UP in more and more places, water is less in more and more places

the planet is getting warmer on a GLOBAL scale!

saying GLOBAL WARING is happening outloud there Tracker , WON"T make you a NON believer in BIG FOOTS LOL

Its OK, to say it like it is you know, you do so all the time HAHA!

 

[Cirrus_Driver]

All ya wanna do is come in here and read about snowmobiles and shut the hail up, and then you get the idiocy that flushes you OUT in the open.
So 3 years of low snow, and 1 of record warmth makes a trend, in all the millions of years the planet existed before the 125 years of recorded weather, and that makes global warming a national crisis. Thanks - got it! I learn so much here.
Just like the current snow in the Sierra's they can't accurately measure its so deep. Just a 2-3 years ago they were in a major drought.
SMDH/ rolls eyes at same time.

 

[momoney2123]

Everyone forgets about the winter of 2013-2014, among one of the coldest if not the coldest on record for places in the Midwest. Where were the global warmers at then? they were quiet, they only talk about things that make their point and ignore the facts that dispute it.

 

[dfattack]

I have even heard recently that the earth has actually started to cool in the last 12-15 years. Sorry I don't record everything I see on TV or save everything I read to prove this, but I have seen this. If the ice in the arctic is melting and maybe there was some warming at some point I don't think it's due to humans or their activities. I think the weather man who started the weather channel was named jim coleman. He used to be a weather man in Chicago where I grew up. He doesn't buy into the global warming theory some politicians do. He says there are peak and valleys that is natural and we can't control it. Not sure why we spend so much money and resources on something we can't control. I'm certainly not an expert in this area. Only saying my opinion.

 

[jebjk1]

Everyone forgets about the winter of 2013-2014, among one of the coldest if not the coldest on record for places in the Midwest. Where were the global warmers at then? they were quiet, they only talk about things that make their point and ignore the facts that dispute it.

Which facts are you referring to? Temps have been increasing since 1977.

 

[momoney2123]

Which facts are you referring to? Temps have been increasing since 1977.
View attachment 56427

Yes they have.....but so has the ocean..its all a cycle, not man-made...IMO


This is the last regular Patriot Post column I am doing, because there is nothing else left to argue about. The simple fact is this: A test that can be evaluated objectively is underway. That test matches the ideas of people like me that nature is in control (i.e., sun, oceans, stochastic events) vs. the idea that CO2 is the control knob. We have the objective way at looking at it by satellite and that measure started in 1978 after the Pacific was in its cold cycle for 30 years. The game is now in the second half. The warming that occurred from the late ‘70s to mid '90s was correlated almost 1 to 1 with the Pacific warming, and this large body of water with tremendous stores of energy warming the air till the global atmosphere adapted, and the temperature rise leveled off. We could not observe nearly as accurately before similar events, we did not have the satellites to do so! The Pacific flipped into its warm cycle in 1978, for the first 30 years of satellite era temps, and is now turning cold. The Atlantic is in its warm cycle, but will soon turn colder. So we simply watch the global temperatures while the downside of the cycle occurs and see what they do.

If they warm to where the other side says they should be when they ramped up their hysteria back in the late '80s and '90s, then they are right (in spite of the warming that had occurred, they are way behind now, as it did not continue once the atmosphere adapted. The oceans have 1,000 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere, so naturally warm the ocean and you will warm the air). If they cool to where we think they should be (back toward where they were in the late 1970s), we are right. The side that is right has the reasons, the side that is wrong has excuses.

 

[mrbb]

in my area again we broke MANY record highs this winter and LAST
and its been a trend , not just a random thing here
25+ yrs my local club is there only once in its history was it never open to riding, 2015-16 season, this past season was open for about 8 days and only 3 with more than a 2 inch base?
we can back and forth all you like, but ALL countrys in the GLOBE we call earth are recording HIGHS and lowest FRESH water tables
AND<
about OCEANS rising, DUH

ice burgs are melting, what is ice made of< when it melts it goes where??
all it a trend, call it a rotation, call it what ever,
its getting warmer and warmer, period?
a GOOD winter is becoming more RARE, than a mild one!

you's that live in lake effect area's might not see it as well as us that don't live there

being a part time farmer, and tons of full time farmers as close friends
summers are NOT the same either, too many dry runs and temp swings even in summers as to yrs gone by!

 

[G]

in my area again we broke MANY record highs this winter and LAST
and its been a trend , not just a random thing here
25+ yrs my local club is there only once in its history was it never open to riding, 2015-16 season, this past season was open for about 8 days and only 3 with more than a 2 inch base?
we can back and forth all you like, but ALL countrys in the GLOBE we call earth are recording HIGHS and lowest FRESH water tables
AND<
about OCEANS rising, DUH

ice burgs are melting, what is ice made of< when it melts it goes where??
all it a trend, call it a rotation, call it what ever,
its getting warmer and warmer, period?
a GOOD winter is becoming more RARE, than a mild one!

you's that live in lake effect area's might not see it as well as us that don't live there

being a part time farmer, and tons of full time farmers as close friends
summers are NOT the same either, too many dry runs and temp swings even in summers as to yrs gone by!

As far as farming goes the weather has always been in control. How about the Dust bowl years of the 1930's? The weather kind of sucked then for a few years. Long before the term Global Warming was invented. The farmers around here bitch about the weather regardless. If it is anything less than perfect they get all tightened up. This means timely rains and perfect temps and now they are even getting upset about cloudy days which hurts 'heat units'. CMON folks. The weather is the weather. Always has been.

 

[Tracker]

the reason is this....

GLOBAL WARMING is a key phrase that causes scientists and us to look in the sky and atmosphere and at our actions on the earth and how it effects those

CLIMATE CHANGE is a key phrase that causes scientists and us to look at earths natural cycles from within and from without


climate change are the natural cycles and man doesnt effect much of anything...but when you say that instead of the other, then everyone looks in a different place which they are currently NOT DOING....they are not even considering the core and magnetism in all this....but in reality its that plus the atmosphere and sun....so if I can spew this thought enough then maybe I can get those that study this to take a look at it ALL again without blinders of the past on....without looking at it as a small speck in time that we are causeing it .....and in the past it wasn't this way since man was not around....the problem is in the past it was this way and man was around....many times over....it is warming yes...but its not warming how we all currently think or are told it is....so I strongly disagree with the wording UNTIL they start taking all the data into account and disregard how long we have been industrialized...then....maybe we will be able to determine if we DO have any impact or not regardless of how long we have been here....because....unfortunately....that is debatable as well and theres ALOT of evidence that we have been here before at this same stage....so theres that

so the short answer is...YES WINTER WILL STILL BE HERE

long answer....it might not be where we have always been used to it being or at the time it has always been at

 

[mrbb]

As far as farming goes the weather has always been in control. How about the Dust bowl years of the 1930's? The weather kind of sucked then for a few years. Long before the term Global Warming was invented. The farmers around here bitch about the weather regardless. If it is anything less than perfect they get all tightened up. This means timely rains and perfect temps and now they are even getting upset about cloudy days which hurts 'heat units'. CMON folks. The weather is the weather. Always has been.

DUst bowels of the past were NOT wide spread as rising temps are and droughts are NOW

farmers struggle to make crops grow now more than ever
we also have LESS farmland in the USA period
here in PA< as to just 30 yrs ago, we have less than 50% of the farm land we once had!

when your lively hood depends on NORMAL weather, and your NOT getting it, I think it effects you WAY more than guys that just post things that don't live by weather and what its NOT doing or doing TOO much of!

weather IMO again is still changing and NOT for the better or normal

billions of humans that produce heat, has to have some effect no?

 

[dfattack]

DUst bowels of the past were NOT wide spread as rising temps are and droughts are NOW

farmers struggle to make crops grow now more than ever
we also have LESS farmland in the USA period
here in PA< as to just 30 yrs ago, we have less than 50% of the farm land we once had!

when your lively hood depends on NORMAL weather, and your NOT getting it, I think it effects you WAY more than guys that just post things that don't live by weather and what its NOT doing or doing TOO much of!

weather IMO again is still changing and NOT for the better or normal

billions of humans that produce heat, has to have some effect no?

NO