pwolfy, ill take that bet! This could be the only bet I HOPE to lose! I teach science and the metric system is only thing we use, its extremely easy to use in the field and to convert to smaller/larger units. And I have never heard of the ozone layer leading to global anything (cooling/warming), that instructor might have been on his/her way out.
Bets?
- Thread starter pwolfy2003
- Start date
Nope, you can't blame the forecasters, or even the mathematical weather models they rely on (tho' tempered by their personal knowledge and experience).
Given the volume of the Troposphere, and the comparative paucity of weather observing points, it's all about "initial conditions" from ground stations, radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems plugged into each iteration of the mathematical weather models.
These models use systems of differential equations based on the laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry, and a coordinate system which divides the planet into a 3D grid. Winds, heat transfer, solar radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology are calculated within each grid cell, and the interactions with neighboring cells are used to calculate atmospheric properties in the future.
Any wonder they need a brace of supercomputers to shake that big bag of marbles, now shaking at an operational computing speed of 8.4 petaflops (8,400,000,000,000,000 floating point operations per second.)
Even with (click →) NOAA's very latest supercomputers coming on line this year — the first major upgrade to the system since 2015, will "boost its compute power by one third and storage by 60 percent, extending its visibility into future weather from 10 to 16 days" — it all still comes down to the (click →) butterfly effect …
where a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system (a small error in a single observation) can result in large differences in a later state (i.e. forecast).
"One butterfly flaps its wings in Michoacán, Mexico, and that pico-ripple in the atmosphere yields significant differences in the worldwide weather forecast two weeks out."
Given the volume of the Troposphere, and the comparative paucity of weather observing points, it's all about "initial conditions" from ground stations, radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems plugged into each iteration of the mathematical weather models.
These models use systems of differential equations based on the laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry, and a coordinate system which divides the planet into a 3D grid. Winds, heat transfer, solar radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology are calculated within each grid cell, and the interactions with neighboring cells are used to calculate atmospheric properties in the future.
Any wonder they need a brace of supercomputers to shake that big bag of marbles, now shaking at an operational computing speed of 8.4 petaflops (8,400,000,000,000,000 floating point operations per second.)
Even with (click →) NOAA's very latest supercomputers coming on line this year — the first major upgrade to the system since 2015, will "boost its compute power by one third and storage by 60 percent, extending its visibility into future weather from 10 to 16 days" — it all still comes down to the (click →) butterfly effect …
where a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system (a small error in a single observation) can result in large differences in a later state (i.e. forecast).
"One butterfly flaps its wings in Michoacán, Mexico, and that pico-ripple in the atmosphere yields significant differences in the worldwide weather forecast two weeks out."
pwolfy2003
Member
Not blaming the forecasters at all, just pissed at Mother Nature for being a bitch, lol Eagle1 not real optimistic about our trails opening up but you never know, and as far as Winnebago I would like to take a spin out there too , have been driving truck out there for a month already fishing so not too worried about the ice on the East side at least.
snobuilder
Well-known member
Metric system is easy. America is hard....LOL.... Metric system countries suck on American taxpayers Teet. Go pound sand metric countries unless you all want to send Americans some TEETS to suck on...
Anyone know when America received financial aid from another count ree? ...if so, how much and for WHAT?
Anyone know when America received financial aid from another count ree? ...if so, how much and for WHAT?
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duluthrider
New member
That isn't that far off , it is curently in development with drone technology.
but it might not make the same cool noises.
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POLARISDAN
New member
dont u got nothing else to do? i cant even spend the time to read what u post..fuk me..get out and ride ..
snobuilder
Well-known member
dfattack
Well-known member
Come on frnash...don't let a few in another thread make you gun shy. I for one love when you call out the crazy grammer! That goes for me too. If I make a mistake...call me out. I'm a big boy now...I can handle it...most of us adults can.
Yes "POLARISDAN" I do have better things to do, other than criticizing what people post as some choose to do, and just as you are tired of "babies" I'm tired of criticisms, stupid ones at that, you cant ask a simple question or post an opinion without getting something stupid back and I'm sure there are others that feel the same, and maybe that's why there are 200+ visitors and only 60 members most of the time on this site. I am planning on coming to the U.P. in 2 weeks perfection or not I am riding, it is what it is, that's when I get to go. if you don't want to read my posts then don't and you're right..... fuk you! and I plan on riding in two weeks.
Very well said! i read the post's but that's it. This site use to be great to get on and communicate with others. Its people like this dumb-*** that should be banned from this site. Oh how I'd like to have a few minutes alone with this dumb-***!
Wow looks like you really are taking this site and its "problems" in the right direction.... Do as I say not as I do. Typical FIB!! There needs to be a sarcasm font for PD to use... LOL
Hey look...it's trying to snow!!! Calm down guys, no one is ever gonna change the weather. WI is no longer a state where we can rely on having snow in the southern counties. If your way of making a living depends on snow in southern WI, you better find a new way to survive...plain and simple. There are other things to do in the winter in WI....find one and get on with life. OR, continue to complain about the weather each year, and go broke. If you can afford to travel to snow, then good for you. If you can't, sell the sled and get a new hobby
pwolfy2003
Member
I wasnt wrong!!!!!!!
Good for you - now sell the sled so you can sit at home and keep bitching about the weather while us die hards keep riding where there is snow!
Interesting take, P.D. is in the U.P. riding though gotta give him that.
Now for my take on the J.D. site in general, does anyone ride anymore? The amount of decent trail reports are down to a few a week, sad. Most discussion seems like chat unrelated to riding. I started getting so bored I was reading total Yamaha and I am a Doo guy.
Bear
snobuilder
Well-known member
5 to 10 day drastically changed from yesterday to today.