Real virus statistics

[Admin]

How's about we all take a step back and a deep breath. This stupid virus has many at a heightened sense of worry, whether it is about getting sick or falling into financial ruin. Both perfectly legit things to be worried about.

If I can, I would like everyone posting here to avoid making generalities like "ALL the persons that think...". This tends to insult folks that do think that way, but who's actions are not in the thing being complained about. As an example, refrain from saying "All the persons taking this lightly and getting everyone else sick".

I am all for debate and discussion. Always have been. There is a lot of crappy things going on right now, but also a lot of great things being done. The list is really way too long (which gives me an idea, stay tuned...) to put here, but I am still proud to be an American. This nation will most likely lead the way in ending this global situation.

As for my own personal situation and state of mind...I fell pretty safe. I am so grateful to live where I do. Any more remote and I would have to move to the moon. If I do get sick, it will be from my own doing, by not washing/sanitizing my hands and/or putting my hands to my face. Got both down pretty good, but still a bit more work to do. I am not afraid to die, I have faced down death 8 times in my nearly 54 years on this planet. That means without direct and in some cases, immediate medical intervention, I would not be here. My biggest fear is to leave Nora and Grace in a situation where they would struggle. I am working everyday to put us in a situation where that would not be a concern. Not that I would want to die when that situation is solved, but would have some greater piece of mind.

So carry on, talk this thing to death and then we will all be able to get back to the life we had just a few weeks ago!

Stay well and ThinkSnow!... for next season.

OH, and legend02, thanks for that link. It is excellent!

-John

 

[euphoric1]

Take a look at all the businesses that are in the Northwoods Directory on this site! These businesses can’t survive being closed down much longer, and the lasting effects of this will be devastating for the ones who do make it thru. There’s a huge chance your favorite bar,lodge,motel or resort will be closed next winter. If you think closing down the whole country, state is good idea,then I suggest looking at this through my eyes as business owner. Is the cure worse than the virus? It all depends who you ask! A person that was sent home with full pay that works for the government would say no! A husband and wife that may lose everything in short few months would say yes.

AGAIN X100,000,000!!! Oh but wait a minute....all of us business owners are all independently wealthy!! the cure is definitely worse than the virus and what of the next one that comes around?
Yes...I am a small business owner....Yes...I am what would be considered high risk as far as virus goes and YES... my opinion will still be the same if it ends up putting me 6' under.

 

[latner]

Just to keep some perspective:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Annual snowmobile deaths may or may not be included under the accidents or suicide totals

 

[frnash]

Just to keep some perspective:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death …

Per day, per fortnight, per month, per year, per decade, … ?
Those are just meaningless numbers without that little tidbit of information!

 

[latner]

per year

 

[sweeperguy]

Just to keep some perspective:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Annual snowmobile deaths may or may not be included under the accidents or suicide totals

Maybe in accidents. But not in suicides.

 

[DamageInc]

"The old, the sick & the weak"? How about the young, the healthy & the strong? This is an equal opportunity destroyer. I can hear it already, wait for version 2.0! -Mezz

Not equal at all. In Italy, which has had over 10,000 deaths now, the average age at death (from COVID-19) is 78 years old. That doesn't mean that younger folks can't die from it (especially if they have health issues), but the elderly are at a FAR higher risk of death from this virus.


Researchers on Monday announced the most comprehensive estimates to date of elderly people’s elevated risk of serious illness and death from the new coronavirus: Covid-19 kills an estimated 13.4% of patients 80 and older, compared to 1.25% of those in their 50s and 0.3% of those in their 40s. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/what-explains-coronavirus-lethality-for-elderly/

 

[harvest1121]

Well no one knows my friend is a rn in a big metropolitan area. She is getting less hours right now because they do not have much going on. Its a really bad flu I want to see the stats of the underlying condition people had who died. I do not want anyone to die but big media blows everything out of proportion.

 

[jr37]

Got Drama! It's like CNN around here. There is nobody making friends on these threads. Let's all relax a little.

 

[Grant Hoar]

The big difference I see between comparing accidents, other diseases, etc to coronavirus statistics is that all the others are historical, and we know what has happened in past years.

Anyone who thinks we (US and the world) really know what is going to happen with coronavirus has blinders on. Does anyone for sure know which model is going to be accurate, no they don't. Does anyone know if any of the models being run so far are actually worst case, no they don't. Does anyone truly know that keeping 6 foot distance prevents the transmission, no they don't. Reduce rate of transmission, well yes, but eliminate it, no. We really don't truly know how bad this can get.

It is the drastic growth pace of this that is overwhelming our medical system, and once that happens, how long will it take to recover? No one knows for sure. How about we all do our part, stay home, and let the intensity drop to a rate that our medical system can handle it.

 

[candyman]

Got Drama! It's like CNN around here. There is nobody making friends on these threads. Let's all relax a little.

What if this was January 1st not April 1st? I wonder if you would have got the same responses if they had shut down the snowmobile season in the Up?

 

[G]

Jup go ahead and just step back. Mother nature doesn't care if you are a rocket scientist or a president or an axe murderer. Mother nature only cares that you reproduce. As far as mother nature is concerned there is no reason for anyone to live past about 30 years old. This site is full of old people. I can understand the angst. But you are all pretty much irrelevant. As am I. I am 61. My Golden years were from 20 to30. So we're most of yours. But we were all too dumb to realize it. Mother nature always wins. This is just a little wake up call. If she was really serious she would have stuck us with Ebola.

 

[G]

Interesting that a few weeks of less pollution clears the skies over China and now the US and the rest of the planet. Humans are so incredibly arrogant as to how much they control. They control nothing. Mother nature is boss.

 

[snobuilder]

Nobody will be working in an office environment until mid-June at the earliest. I don’t mean to scare anyone, but eventually, 1 out of every 2000 people in the USA will die from this. I didn't think this was serious at first either. Now I do.

Check out this link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This is from Chris Murray at the University of Washington. The data for this model is updated every morning at 6:00 am. PST. On the home page of IHME there is a update tab explaining changes. This dude is the best metrics guy in the country. The White House and Dr Birx are using his projections.

posterity

- - - Updated - - -

Nobody knows how many people have had this virus and recovered without ever having a test to see if they had it. Also most of the fatalities had underlying issues before the virus kicked in. How many of them would have died anyway? Nobody knows. So there is no way to calculate a definite mortality rate. You need 3 numbers to figure that out and the only number you have is how many people have been tested. Yes this is bad. But for the most part it is killing the old, the sick and the weak. Who were all going to die first anyway.

Yep.

- - - Updated - - -

It always amazes me to read some of the statements that are made by some on this site. It seems that many do not put a very high value on human life. Some seem to think that it's acceptable for the numerous fatalities on the snowmobile trails and now some are comparing the loss of life due to the covid-19 virus to the seasonal influenza and rationalizing that this is not more severe than the seasonal influenza. I am here to tell you that this is much more serious. I am a clinical pharmacist at a large hospital and we are just beginning to see the influx of covid patients. Although the groups that Grub mentioned are the most at risk, I can tell you that there are a significant number of hospitalized patients that do not fall in the high risk group. Just out of curiosity Grub, how do you know that the old, sick and weak "WERE ALL GOING TO DIE FIRST ANYWAY"?

John, I pray that you and your family stay safe and healthy through this challenging time and as a fellow Purdue guy I say BOILER UP!!!

where was your concern before the news media caused your concern over this cold?...simply post up a thread from the past 10 years or so....many 'pandemics" since then.

 

[snobuilder]

Lets all take some time and compare the medias minute by minute coverage of this "crisis" and compare it to minute by minute coverage of other cold/flu epidemics of the past.
I'll wait.

 

[LoveMyDobe]

Take a look at all the businesses that are in the Northwoods Directory on this site! These businesses can’t survive being closed down much longer, and the lasting effects of this will be devastating for the ones who do make it thru. There’s a huge chance your favorite bar,lodge,motel or resort will be closed next winter. If you think closing down the whole country, state is good idea,then I suggest looking at this through my eyes as business owner. Is the cure worse than the virus? It all depends who you ask! A person that was sent home with full pay that works for the government would say no! A husband and wife that may lose everything in short few months would say yes.

I agree A few businesses around here cut back hrs or close due trail closure for spring breakup but not for 2 months Please support these guys if and when they reopen.

 

[euphoric1]

Lets all take some time and compare the medias minute by minute coverage of this "crisis" and compare it to minute by minute coverage of other cold/flu epidemics of the past.
I'll wait.

and waiting and waiting and waiting.... no response...surprised??

 

[blkhwkbob]

Interesting that a few weeks of less pollution clears the skies over China and now the US and the rest of the planet. Humans are so incredibly arrogant as to how much they control. They control nothing. Mother nature is boss.

Well, I am sorry that you feel no self-worth. I'm not ready to go yet. I've got things I want to do first.

 

[Admin]

and waiting and waiting and waiting.... no response...surprised??

Cannot comment. Stopped watching around 6-7 years ago. Not sure why anyone still would be. I'll wait.

 

[whitedust]

Take a look at all the businesses that are in the Northwoods Directory on this site! These businesses can’t survive being closed down much longer, and the lasting effects of this will be devastating for the ones who do make it thru. There’s a huge chance your favorite bar,lodge,motel or resort will be closed next winter. If you think closing down the whole country, state is good idea,then I suggest looking at this through my eyes as business owner. Is the cure worse than the virus? It all depends who you ask! A person that was sent home with full pay that works for the government would say no! A husband and wife that may lose everything in short few months would say yes.

Not true in my 15 years in Vilas meltdown and break up mid March to early May is hotel , bar grill, and motel shut down time good time for improvements. Northwoods Residents try to go somewhere warm come back in May very traditional downtime for the Northwoods. Boat sales and snowmobile Spring sales may suffer but that’s discretionary spending and always suffers in recessions. The Northwoods businesses are a lot more resilient than you think. Also as New Yorkers fled the island for FL many cabin owners left the Midwest cities for the Northwoods. Things up north aren’t as bad as you think just check out Eagle River this weekend.