Utt-oh!

Admin

Admin

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I was just waiting for the sun to be up long enough to see if I could determine the ice situation on the big lake and was not happy with what I saw.

The areas outlined in red on the image below are areas where there is ice on the big lake. Not all of it is fast ice (solid and attached to the shoreline) and in some cases, there is still enough open water to give up some heat and moisture to make LES, but quite a big difference from just a few days ago and with the temps to remain largely frigid in the next 5-7 days, I do not like our odds.
lsice1-21.jpg

There are some strong winds forecasted for later tomorrow and tomorrow night and the big lake does not like to stay frozen, but none the less, I am not happy with what I see.

Nothing against northern MN- especially the great folks I know from up there, but if I wanted their winters, I would have moved there!

-John
 
indy_500

indy_500

Well-known member
I guess I'm a bit confused as the drive home the Keweenaw bay was completly open except for the last roughly 1000 yards by Lanse and Baraga.Looks like you have the entire bay in red? Unless it changed in the past couple days.
 
Admin

Admin

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It has. Plus, as I said above, not all of the areas outlined in red are solid ice. Most is actually "pack ice" or a mixture of ice and water. We have had LES falling all day, with stuff blowing in off from the NW of us.

But once it starts to freeze like that and things stay bitterly cold, it keeps freezing.

-John
 
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pinestump

Member
John do you think if the lake does freeze over it will retain heat or loose heat?
I see we still have a good fetch going over the EUP still ....that is good bad...Great for some of the best docking we have seen in a while and bad for all the clean-up we have had to do over here this winter..So much snow that my roof locked and would not slide.
Also what is your thought on more system snows to make up for the LES?
 
J

josh_4184

New member
Lake Michigan doesn't freeze very easily, it has only come close once or twice since records were kept and even those were not 100% accurate.
 
S

Skylar

Super Moderator
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Sonofabi___!!!!!! Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
S

scott_l

Member
There was a ship/boat stuck in the ice with a bunch of scientist 3-4 weeks ago and they sent in several different ice breakers to rescue them. Why can't they send in a few ice breakers to break up this ice, after all the ship had 15-20 people on it (i'm guessing). If the LES stops in the yoop how many lives would that effect (the lack of tourism).

Ok i am just typing the B.S. while I eat my lunch...............back to the sea and snow oil topic
 
Admin

Admin

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pinestump said:
John do you think if the lake does freeze over it will retain heat or loose heat?
I see we still have a good fetch going over the EUP still ....that is good bad...Great for some of the best docking we have seen in a while and bad for all the clean-up we have had to do over here this winter..So much snow that my roof locked and would not slide.
Also what is your thought on more system snows to make up for the LES?
Click to expand...

If I follow your question correctly, if the lake were frozen solid and got some snow on the ice, then the waters below would be insulated from the cold, but really kind of a moot point (IMO) as the heat in the lake would not be doing anything to produce snow or help moderate the bitter cold coming from Canada and the arctic.

The lake north of you is still wide open and is almost always the last to freeze because it is deep and also does not handle the brunt of the arctic air like the western end does.

As for system snow making up for the loss of LES, that would depend on the pattern and in the one we are in now, would not be close at all.

-John
 
Admin

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Also Indy, it can be hard to get the true situation with ice cover on a lake the size of Superior. It may look like you are looking out and seeing the whole expanse of the lake, when in reality, you are only seeing a few miles out. Usually, it is the other way around. Folks will say that the lake is totally froze, because they stood on the shoreline and there was "ice as far as they could see".

Below is an image taken from space Saturday afternoon of Keweenaw Bay. Note the small area of open water that you were probably looking at from the HWY.
kbay.jpg
The rest is pack ice from the tip of the Keweenaw to around Big Bay.

For all, here is a nice shot of a Meso Low in the eastern lake, just to the west of Michipicoten Island.
mesolow.jpg
Oh, how nice it would be to be sitting in one of the "eye walls" of that thing! 3-6"/hr snows!

-John
 
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josh_4184

New member
Administrator said:
Also Indy, it can be hard to get the true situation with ice cover on a lake the size of Superior. It may look like you are looking out and seeing the whole expanse of the lake, when in reality, you are only seeing a few miles out. Usually, it is the other way around. Folks will say that the lake is totally froze, because they stood on the shoreline and there was "ice as far as they could see".

Below is an image taken from space Saturday afternoon of Keweenaw Bay. Note the small area of open water that you were probably looking at from the HWY.
View attachment 44866
The rest is pack ice from the tip of the Keweenaw to around Big Bay.

For all, here is a nice shot of a Meso Low in the eastern lake, just to the west of Michipicoten Island.
View attachment 44867
Oh, how nice it would be to be sitting in one of the "eye walls" of that thing! 3-6"/hr snows!

-John
Click to expand...

John, The NWS in Marquette just posted an article about this as well.

http://ow.ly/i/4m4em
 
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pinestump

Member
Administrator said:
If I follow your question correctly, if the lake were frozen solid and got some snow on the ice, then the waters below would be insulated from the cold, but really kind of a moot point (IMO) as the heat in the lake would not be doing anything to produce snow or help moderate the bitter cold coming from Canada and the arctic.

The lake north of you is still wide open and is almost always the last to freeze because it is deep and also does not handle the brunt of the arctic air like the western end does.

As for system snow making up for the loss of LES, that would depend on the pattern and in the one we are in now, would not be close at all.

-John
Click to expand...

Thanks John
I was thinking that it would help retain what heat was in the lake and it would not disapaite as it would with no ice...
If I remember right on your LTF that this year would start off big in our areas and then slow down as the winter goes on...
 
Admin

Admin

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pinestump said:
Thanks John
I was thinking that it would help retain what heat was in the lake and it would not disapaite as it would with no ice...
If I remember right on your LTF that this year would start off big in our areas and then slow down as the winter goes on...
Click to expand...

Honestly with a lake that averages 700 feet deep and is over 1000 feet in it's deepest spots, loss of heat from the entire lake is not of any concern to me. Just the top few inches! As I mentioned above, pray for strong winds to bring that "warmer" water up from below to melt the ice!!!

I know the Twin Lakes Crazies (or so I think they call themselves) have been successful with their snow dances in the past, perhaps they can do an ice melt dance!

-John

-John
 
S

Skylar

Super Moderator
Staff member
OK, how about we all chip in and rent an ice breaker for a week? THE LES CANNOT BE TURNED OFF, OR I WILL BECOME MR. GRUMPY GILLS!!
 
scottiking

scottiking

Well-known member
You read my mind!
I'm on it!
Hekki Flamta dance we'll call it!
I need to be careful the Twin Lake folks are not thrilled about our Dec 1st dance!
We are running out of space for the snow already!


Scottiblaze out!





Administrator said:
Honestly with a lake that averages 700 feet deep and is over 1000 feet in it's deepest spots, loss of heat from the entire lake is not of any concern to me. Just the top few inches! As I mentioned above, pray for strong winds to bring that "warmer" water up from below to melt the ice!!!

I know the Twin Lakes Crazies (or so I think they call themselves) have been successful with their snow dances in the past, perhaps they can do an ice melt dance!

-John

-John
Click to expand...
 
J

josh_4184

New member
Well you do have a LES Watch in effect, perhaps one last hurrah, the cold air doesn't look to be going anywhere anytime soon. Ice builds more ice, usually in a more rapid pace. Best bet would be to have one heck a storm system with strong winds come through and churn up the lake.
 
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chevytaHOE5674

New member
Its amazing looking at the satellite pictures from yesterday compared to today. Yesterday the Keweenaw UP to the arrowhead was largely open, today its iced over.
 
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