Thursday Storm Could Be A Game Changer.
- Thread starter whitedust
- Start date
Right erkoehler! if the storm would wait until friday when colder temps were coming in would be game changer for the whole state, talks of ALOT of rain here, but yes I hope the northwoods and UP get it and they and the industry need it. FINGERS CROSSED!
Sorry Russ not yet but all sealed up with lots of ice fishermen. Local biz puts out barrels so should be marked next week. A foot of ice on Spectacle with frozen snow and we picked up a couple inches of artic snow today so bud shook out vintage SRX. Hope to ride with you real soon.
hermie
Well-known member
It would be nice if there was more cold in place,so more of Wi. would get snow. The main reason cold air will be in place on Friday is because the storm will be to the east of us pulling down the cold air. Let's just hope that some where this storm hits to open up some sledding.
harvest1121
Well-known member
I am behind schedule for miles so I need to be up there this year. Or looks like go up on the first always a good day to ride when nobody is up yet. Snow will tell
Actually, I think the path now is perfect. Can’t waste good snow down south where it won’t last!
Path may be perfect for precipitation, but what kind of precipitation?
NOAA looks OK, but not great.
Whatever John says tomorrow is what will actually happen.
From NOAA Discussion:
The initial surge of WAA pcpn, is expected to arrive late Wed night from sw to ne. Temp profiles suggest that the pcpn will remain all snow into Thursday morning. With strong moisture transport and 290- 300k isentropic lift with 4 f/kg available several inches of wet snow are expected, at least into the 2 to 4 inch range. Enough warm air moves into the south to change the pcpn to rain in the afternoon over the south half in the afternoon. The combination of the warm air surge and loss of ice nuclei with the nearby dry slot should support mainly rain/drizzle over most of Upper Michigan Thursday night. Friday, a the sfc low lifts into northern lower Michigan or the straits, CAA will quickly strengthen over the west half during the morning and sweep through the east in the afternoon. Moderate to strong 700-300 mb qvector conv ahead of the shrtwv will support widespread pcpn that will change over to snow. ne winds veering to north with 850 mb temps dropping into the -5C to -10 range will also bring additional lake enhanced snow, especially over the west and into the higher terrain north central where orographic lift is strongest. The snow should then transition closer to pure LES Friday night as 850 mb temps drop to around -15C with lingering cyclonic nrly low level flow. Additional snowfall into the advisory and possibly warning range may be possible over the north.
Sat, The ECMWF was faster in bringing sfc ridging into the area which would weak or end the LES compared to the GFS.
Sun-Mon, Model differences and ensemble spread grows in handling the impacts of nrn stream shortwaves and the amount of phasing with the nrn stream that could bring greater moisture and shrtwvs toward the area from the cntrl Plains, per ECMWF. &&
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Totally agree!!!
Showing US and European models on local TV in the Northwoods of WI and your graphics are very close to the US Model the European not so much. Whatever snow that falls will be wet followed by cold which is perfect for setting up the ribbon. Merry Xmas!